The El Niño climate pattern is expected to strengthen further over the coming months, with below-normal precipitation forecast for India during the September 2026-February 2027 period, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the APEC Climate Center (APCC).
The APCC’s Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Seasonal Outlook, issued on August 18, forecasts climate conditions from September 2026 to February 2027. Its ENSO Alert system indicates El Niño as the prevailing climate state and says the phenomenon is expected to develop further in the coming seasons.
The forecast points to a potentially challenging period for India, with the APCC projecting an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation over the country in the September-November period. At the same time, temperatures are expected to remain above normal across much of India and large parts of Asia.
India Faces Rainfall Risk
For the September-November 2026 season, the APCC forecasts an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation over India. Strongly enhanced probabilities of below-normal rainfall are also projected over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent and western tropical Pacific.
The APCC also forecasts below-normal precipitation over parts of the subtropical South Pacific, tropical North Atlantic, western equatorial Atlantic, Central America, the Caribbean and northern South America.
For the December 2026-February 2027 period, however, the rainfall outlook for India becomes more mixed. The APCC projects a tendency towards above-normal precipitation over central India, while above-normal rainfall is also expected in parts of Central and East Asia.
This shift highlights an important point: the seasonal outlook does not indicate that India will experience below-normal rainfall throughout the entire September 2026-February 2027 period. The rainfall signal varies by season and region.
Above-Normal Temperatures Likely
Temperature projections point to a much stronger and more widespread warming signal.
For September-November, the APCC forecasts a strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures across the Indian Ocean and most of Asia, as well as large parts of Africa, the Mediterranean, western Europe, the Arctic region, the tropical Pacific, southern Australia, the Caribbean, Central America and northern South America.
For December-February, the above-normal temperature signal remains strong across South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean, most of Africa, the tropical Pacific and northern Australia.
The APCC also expects above-normal temperatures across the Mediterranean and western Europe, northern Canada, the Caribbean, Central America and northern South America during the winter period.
For India, the combination of a rainfall deficit risk during the post-monsoon period and above-normal temperatures could have implications for soil moisture, water resources and agricultural conditions.
El Niño to Remain a Key Climate Driver
The APCC ENSO Alert identifies El Niño as the expected climate state for September 2026-February 2027 and indicates that the event will continue developing.
The centre has also released forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index, a key indicator used to assess ENSO conditions in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The APCC's probabilistic forecasts provide projections of both the likely ENSO state and its intensity over overlapping three-month periods.
El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm. It can influence atmospheric circulation and shift rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world.
For India, El Niño is historically associated with a higher risk of weaker monsoon rainfall, although the relationship is not deterministic. Other oceanic and atmospheric factors can influence the Indian monsoon and may strengthen or offset the impact of El Niño.