A developing El Niño weather pattern is expected to intensify climate risks across tropical agricultural regions during the second half of 2026, raising concerns over rice production and other soft commodities in Asia and several other parts of the world.
Weather experts say conditions have remained largely favourable in recent months, but the situation could change significantly once El Niño strengthens over the Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks. Forecast agencies are expected to officially declare El Niño conditions within the next 30 to 45 days as sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific continue to rise rapidly.
Asia’s major rice-producing nations are expected to be among the first and most severely affected. India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during critical crop development periods, threatening rice output and increasing risks for farmers dependent on monsoon rains.
The emerging weather system is expected to hit tropical agriculture harder than global grain and oilseed production. Analysts warn that crops such as rice, sugarcane, coffee and cocoa are especially vulnerable because many of these are cultivated in tropical regions that typically become drier during El Niño years.
In South and Southeast Asia, the impact could begin to emerge from July onward, with weather anomalies becoming more pronounced between August and October. India’s monsoon rainfall may weaken in several regions, while Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to dry out soon after El Niño conditions become firmly established. The late September to February period is expected to witness the sharpest rainfall deficits in Southeast Asia.
Agricultural experts warn that lower rainfall in these regions could affect rice planting schedules, reduce yields and increase irrigation demand. Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia may also face pressure because of reduced soil moisture, indirectly influencing edible oil markets worldwide.
Southern China is another region likely to witness weather disruptions, though in contrast to Southeast Asia, forecasters expect excessive rainfall during the summer months. Such conditions could trigger flooding, crop damage and logistical disruptions in agricultural supply chains.
Beyond Asia, the El Niño pattern is expected to reshape rainfall distribution across Africa and South America. West-central Africa is forecast to become drier than usual, threatening cocoa and coffee production. However, east-central Africa, including Ethiopia and Tanzania, could turn wetter than normal.
South Africa is also expected to experience drier conditions during its spring and summer growing season, adding stress to agriculture and water supplies. In South America, southern Brazil and neighbouring areas are likely to witness wetter-than-normal conditions extending through the 2026-27 spring and summer period.
Meanwhile, northwestern South America, including parts of Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, is expected to receive unusually heavy rainfall once El Niño strengthens. Meteorologists say the wettest conditions in the region may emerge in early 2027.
Northeastern Brazil, however, may experience the opposite trend, with dry conditions likely between November and February next year, potentially affecting local crop production and water availability.
Experts note that every El Niño event behaves differently because regional weather patterns are influenced by several atmospheric and oceanic factors. Although some forecasters are describing the current development as a potentially “super” El Niño, meteorologists caution against excessive alarm. They argue that the distinction between a strong and “super” El Niño is relatively small and does not always translate into dramatically different global weather outcomes.
In North America and Europe, the impact is expected to remain limited in the near term. Historically, El Niño has a weaker influence on these regions until late in the calendar year. Weather specialists say concerns about catastrophic impacts on North American agriculture during the current summer may be overstated.
Later in 2026 and into early 2027, Canada and northern parts of the United States may experience a warmer and drier winter, while southern parts of North America could turn wetter, increasing flood risks in some areas.