Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, and urgent action is essential to prevent catastrophic temperature rises and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, according to a new report released Thursday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
As climate impacts intensify globally, nations must demonstrate significantly stronger ambition and action in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions, or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will slip beyond reach within a few years, warns the Emissions Gap Report 2024. Continuing with current policies alone would lead to a 3.1°C increase in global temperatures.
“Climate crunch time is here,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “We need global mobilization at a scale and pace never seen before, starting immediately before the next round of climate pledges.” She cautioned that if action isn’t taken, the 1.5°C goal in the Paris Agreement on climate change “will soon be unattainable, and the target of staying well below two degrees Celsius will face severe jeopardy.”
Climate Goals at Risk
Launched at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report assesses the gap between current global emission trajectories and the levels required to limit warming to well below 2°C, pursuing 1.5°C in alignment with the 2015 Paris Agreement.
According to the report, the 1.5°C goal will be unachievable within a few years unless nations collectively commit to cutting annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035, with robust action following these commitments.
‘On a Planetary Tightrope’
Without dramatic emissions cuts, the world faces an inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C rise in temperature, the report highlights, emphasizing that governments are falling short of meeting their promises.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked that the emissions gap is not an abstract concept; there’s a clear link between rising emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. “We are on a planetary tightrope,” he warned in a video message. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.”
Affordable Solutions Can Help
The upcoming COP29 UN Climate Change Conference, beginning in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November, should serve as a platform for ambitious new national plans, Guterres said, adding that it “starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans by next year.”
“Governments have agreed to align these plans with the 1.5°C target,” he stated. This entails reducing all greenhouse gas emissions and covering the entire economy, driving progress across every sector. Guterres urged the largest economies – the G20, responsible for around 80 percent of global emissions – to lead the effort.
There is hope, the UN chief stressed. “Today’s report shows that affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need by 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C target, but only with increased ambition and support.”
Renewable Energy Can Alter the Path
The report projects significant potential to cut emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030, equating to roughly 52 percent of 2023 emissions, and by 41 gigatons by 2035, helping meet the 1.5°C target.
Increasing solar photovoltaic and wind energy use could account for 27 percent of the total reduction by 2030 and 38 percent by 2035. Additionally, forest conservation could provide about 20 percent of the necessary reductions in both years. Other effective strategies include improving energy efficiency, electrifying various sectors, and transitioning from fossil fuels in buildings, transport, and industry, according to the report.
However, realizing even a fraction of this potential will demand unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive governmental approach, focusing on maximizing socioeconomic and environmental benefits while minimizing trade-offs.
Momentum Towards 2035 NDCs
Dr. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), noted that the UNEP Emissions Gap Report highlights stagnation in ambition and action since the initial NDCs, with countries falling short of their 2030 pledges. Nonetheless, the world is keenly awaiting the 2035 pledges. Establishing targets fosters accountability in emissions reduction and pressures lagging nations to demonstrate meaningful progress. The significance of targets and goalposts in driving climate ambition and action cannot be overstated. The stage is set for political momentum toward the 2035 NDCs.