Global wheat and other small-grain production prospects have improved in several major growing regions following better-than-expected rainfall, easing earlier concerns over supply shortages and food price inflation, according to a global crop weather assessment.
Earlier forecasts had raised concerns about drought in Western Europe, Canada and the United States, with potential dryness also threatening crops in India, Australia, South Africa and parts of South America. However, timely precipitation in several regions has improved crop establishment, yield prospects and soil moisture conditions.
In India, late-season monsoon rains have increased topsoil moisture, improving prospects for wheat, barley and other winter crops, including rapeseed and millet in northern regions.
Australia has recorded one of the strongest improvements in crop prospects. Well-timed rainfall supported winter crop establishment and continued through reproductive and grain-filling stages. Production is expected to remain below last year's level, largely because of reduced planting in Queensland and northern New South Wales amid concerns over El Niño. Favourable rainfall and limited extreme heat have supported crops elsewhere in the country.
In Canada, wet and cold conditions initially delayed planting and fuelled expectations of a smaller harvest. Improved summer weather subsequently raised yields above earlier projections, although production remains relatively low.
Western Europe has experienced persistent dryness since March. However, much of the small-grain crop completed key reproductive stages before the hottest weather arrived. Heavy storms in late October are also expected to improve soil moisture and support the establishment of winter crops for the 2026-27 season.
Rainfall has improved crop prospects in Ukraine and parts of the Balkans, while recent precipitation in China's wheat-growing regions has brought soil moisture close to favourable levels.
South Africa has also benefited from favourable winter crop conditions, although reduced planting in western areas could limit output. Argentina is expected to record good winter crop yields, while rainfall in US hard red winter wheat areas has improved crop emergence and establishment.
Despite these gains, risks remain. Dryness in southern Russia continues to threaten small-grain yields. In India, concerns persist over heat and inadequate moisture during the reproductive and grain-filling stages of winter crops. Excessive late-season moisture is also expected to affect wheat quality in Brazil.
Overall, improved rainfall has strengthened wheat production prospects in Australia, Ukraine, the United States, Argentina, South Africa and parts of Europe. The coming months could bring better-than-expected output across several other crops, although regional weather risks remain.