India’s first advance estimates for the 2025-26 kharif season show a mild improvement in aggregate foodgrain production, even as several major crops are poised to fall short of last year’s final levels. The Agriculture Ministry on Wednesday projected total kharif foodgrain output at 173.33 million tonnes, an increase of 3.87 million tonnes over last season’s comparable estimate.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the gains reflect “positive momentum” in the farm sector, though the data shows a sharply uneven pattern across crops as extreme rainfall benefitted some regions but damaged others.
Rice and maize drive the gains
Kharif rice production is estimated at 124.50 million tonnes, up 1.73 million tonnes from last year’s final estimate. Maize shows a stronger increase, projected at 28.30 million tonnes, 3.50 million tonnes higher than the 2024-25 output.
These two staples account for almost the entire rise in foodgrains. Several crops fall below last year’s levels
A deeper comparison with the government’s final 2024-25 data shows declines in multiple crops:
- Soybean:
o Last year: 15.27 million tonnes
o This year: 14.27 million tonnes
o Decrease: –1.00 million tonnes
- Tur:
o Last year: 3.62 million tonnes
o This year: 3.60 million tonnes
o Decrease: –0.02 million tonnes
- Urad:
o Last year: 1.34 million tonnes
o This year: 1.21 million tonnes
o Decrease: –0.13 million tonnes
The only major improvement in pulses comes from moong, expected to rise to 1.72 million tonnes, sharply higher than last year’s 1.34 million tonnes.
Oilseeds present a mixed outlook
Groundnut output is projected at 11.09 million tonnes, 0.68 million tonnes higher than last year. But the fall in soybean — India’s largest kharif oilseed — erases most of this gain, keeping the broader oilseeds outlook subdued and reinforcing India’s dependence on edible oil imports.
Sugarcane rises but brings old risks back
Sugarcane production is pegged at 475.61 million tonnes, up 21.00 million tonnes from last year. While the increase supports sugar availability, it again raises concerns about mill arrears and worsening water stress in cane belts.
Weather volatility shapes outcomes
The ministry acknowledged that excessive rainfall damaged crops in pockets of the country, though most regions benefited from favourable monsoon spells. Analysts warn that such uneven rainfall is increasingly influencing crop performance, especially in rain-fed belts where declines are concentrated — soybean, urad and cotton among them.
Advance estimates often undergo downward revision in climatically volatile years. “The real picture will emerge once crop-cutting experiments come in,” an agricultural economist said, noting that the year’s rainfall pattern could widen the gap between initial and final estimates.
Inflation remains a concern
Higher rice and maize output may help moderate cereal inflation, but shortfalls in tur and urad — the two pulses with the highest consumption sensitivity — could continue to exert upward pressure on prices. The dip in soybean also limits relief on edible oil inflation unless global markets remain soft.
Rural incomes unlikely to see uniform gains
While growers of rice and maize may benefit from better yields, producers of pulses, cotton and soybean face tighter margins, especially with input costs still elevated. This could keep rural consumption subdued even if headline production appears stable.
A cautiously positive start
The ministry has framed the numbers as evidence of resilience, but the broader picture is more nuanced. India’s overall kharif output looks higher this year, yet several critical crops have slipped below last season’s levels. With climate volatility rising and price pressures persisting, the season’s early optimism remains tempered by structural vulnerabilities. Revised estimates are expected after harvest-based assessments in the coming months.