El Niño has become firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, increasing the risks of extreme heat, floods and drought across different parts of the world, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
WMO forecasts indicate an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will persist through February 2027, marking the strongest level of certainty in the organization’s 50-year history of El Niño/La Niña updates. The event is expected to peak toward the end of 2026, with its climate impacts potentially continuing well into 2027.
The intensification is being driven by exceptionally warm conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, averaged 1.5°C above normal during May-July 2026 and reached 2.0°C above normal in July. Weekly readings subsequently climbed to around 2.2°C-2.6°C above average between late July and mid-August.
Ocean temperatures beneath the surface are even more unusual, with some areas recording temperatures more than 8°C above average during July and early August. These conditions, combined with strong atmospheric signals, point to further strengthening of the event.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the impacts could include significant disruption to communities and economies, with droughts and floods already causing damage in some regions. She said the exceptional El Niño requires exceptional preparedness and response, with national meteorological and hydrological services being mobilized to strengthen early-warning efforts.
However, WMO stressed that a very strong El Niño does not mean identical impacts everywhere. Regional effects depend on location, season and interactions with other climate drivers, including the Indian and Atlantic oceans.
For September-November 2026, WMO forecasts indicate a heightened probability of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas. Rainfall patterns are also expected to show a pronounced response to the strong Pacific El Niño.
A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to develop, with a seasonal mean value of 0.9°C during September-November. The equatorial Atlantic is also forecast to remain warmer than normal, potentially modifying El Niño's typical regional effects.
WMO emphasized that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. Reliable forecasts, however, can provide governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water resources with valuable time to prepare.