The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is expected to create significant new export opportunities for India's agriculture and allied sectors, especially processed foods, cereals, fruits, vegetables, spices and seafood, according to a report released by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). However, the report cautions that tariff concessions alone will not guarantee higher exports unless Indian exporters strengthen compliance with the UK's stringent food safety, traceability and certification requirements.
According to the report, the UK imported goods worth US$928.9 billion from the world in 2025, but only US$15.2 billion came from India, giving India a market share of just 1.6%. At the same time, the UK accounted for only 3.4% of India's total exports of US$445 billion, indicating considerable scope for expansion under CETA.
GTRI said export potential depends not only on tariff reductions but also on four key factors- UK import demand, India's export capacity, its current market presence and the tariff advantage created by CETA. It noted that sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, food safety standards, certification and supply-chain capabilities will play an equally important role in determining export gains.
Processed foods among biggest beneficiaries
Among agricultural products, processed foods have emerged as one of the biggest winners under CETA. The UK imported processed food worth US$33.4 billion in 2025, but India supplied only US$354 million, giving it a market share of just 1.1% despite India's global processed food exports of US$10 billion. The report said tariff reductions could significantly improve exports of ready-to-eat foods, bakery and confectionery products, sauces and ethnic foods, provided exporters comply with UK food safety, labelling and traceability norms.
Strong prospects for cereals, fruits, vegetables and spices
The report identifies cereals, vegetables, fruits and spices as another high-potential export category. India exported these products worth US$25.6 billion globally in 2025, while UK imports stood at US$23.2 billion. Yet India supplied only US$716 million, accounting for a modest 3.1% share of UK imports. CETA is expected to improve India's competitiveness in selected farm products, although gains may remain limited in sensitive commodities due to SPS regulations and continued protection measures in the UK.
Seafood sector offers untapped opportunity
The report also sees enormous potential for India's seafood exports. The UK imported fish, meat and processed products worth US$17.2 billion, while India exported only US$126 million, representing just 0.7% of UK imports despite having global exports of US$12.8 billion in the segment. GTRI believes seafood could become one of the biggest beneficiaries of CETA if exporters successfully meet UK standards relating to SPS measures, residue limits and traceability.
Other sectors with high export potential
Besides agriculture, GTRI identified garments, textiles, leather products, footwear, automobiles, machinery, electronics, ceramics and fabricated metal products as sectors with strong export potential.
Automobiles and auto components present one of the largest opportunities because India currently supplies only US$325 million, or 0.4%, of the UK's US$92.2 billion automobile imports. Similarly, India accounts for just 1.3% of the UK's US$106.2 billion machinery imports and 2.8% of its US$74.1 billion telecom and electronics imports, leaving substantial room for expansion under CETA.
Some sectors face structural challenges
Not every sector is expected to benefit equally. Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, rubber products and edible oils have been placed in the medium-potential category, where regulatory requirements, environmental standards and procurement practices are likely to matter more than tariff concessions.
Iron and steel products, petroleum, alcohol and tobacco have been classified as low-potential sectors. For steel, UK safeguard measures, quota restrictions and carbon-related regulations are expected to outweigh tariff benefits. Similarly, petroleum trade is driven largely by global prices, while alcohol and tobacco exports face structural constraints arising from limited Indian market presence, high taxes and stringent regulations.
Compliance key to unlocking opportunities
The report stresses that India needs a sector-specific export strategy to convert market access into actual exports. Food exporters must strengthen testing infrastructure, traceability systems and compliance with UK sanitary and phytosanitary standards. Automobile manufacturers need to satisfy rules of origin and technical standards, while machinery and electronics exporters must improve certification, technology adoption and supply-chain integration.
According to GTRI, CETA opens the door for Indian exports, but the country can realise its full potential only by improving quality standards, regulatory compliance, logistics and buyer networks. Without these complementary measures, much of the export opportunity created by the agreement could remain unrealised.