India is poised to achieve a record rice production of 142.0 million tons in the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This marks a 2 percent increase from the previous month's forecast and a 3 percent rise from last year. The surge in production is largely driven by a record harvested area of 49.0 million hectares, up 2 percent from 2023 and 6 percent above the five-year average. The yield is estimated at a record 4.35 tons per hectare, up less than 1 percent from last year and 4 percent from the five-year average.
The USDA attributes this record-breaking output to an expansion in the planted area and favourable growing conditions later in the season. A growing number of farmers have shifted from cotton to rice cultivation, motivated by higher potential yields and reduced risk compared to cotton. As of September 20, 2024, India’s Ministry of Agriculture reported rice sowing at 41.35 million hectares, a 2 percent increase from the same period last year and nearly 3 percent above the five-year average.
Satellite data, particularly the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), indicates good crop vigor across the Indo-Gangetic Plains, which includes Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha, and accounts for about 30 percent of the Kharif crop. Most farmers planted after the July planting window. "The late-planted rice is benefiting from the rains during the late withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and increased precipitation during August and September," according to the USDA’s World Agricultural Production Report.
India's rice production spans three seasons: kharif, rabi, and a smaller summer crop. Kharif rice, which constitutes 83 percent of the country's total production, is expected to be harvested by early November. Rabi rice, which accounts for 10 percent, will be planted from November to January and harvested in late April.
This promising outlook underscores the growing importance of rice in India's agricultural landscape, with farmers increasingly turning to the crop for its reliability and yield potential.