The southwest monsoon officially arrived in Kerala on Thursday, June 4, marking the beginning of India’s crucial four-month rainy season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced. The onset came three days later than the normal date of June 1 and four days after the weather agency’s earlier forecast that predicted its arrival on May 26.
Meanwhile, in Delhi, the IMD issued a yellow alert for rain and thunderstorms. The national capital recorded a minimum temperature of 29.7 degrees Celsius on Thursday, while the maximum temperature is expected to hover around 38 degrees Celsius.
According to the IMD, the monsoon has advanced into the entire Kerala and Mahe region, Lakshadweep, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the remaining areas of the Comorin region, and several parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.
“The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala and Mahe, and some parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu,” the IMD said in a statement.
The onset coincided with widespread rainfall across Kerala. Heavy showers lashed several districts overnight, prompting the IMD to issue an orange alert for Alappuzha, Kottayam and Ernakulam districts for three hours on Thursday. The alert warned of intense rainfall and possible localized disruptions.
The arrival of the monsoon is closely watched because it provides nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall and plays a critical role in agriculture, water resources, rural incomes and overall economic growth.
However, the onset comes amid concerns over the overall performance of this year’s monsoon. Last week, the IMD revised its seasonal rainfall forecast downward and projected that India would receive rainfall equivalent to 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the June-September season.
The LPA, calculated using rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres for the country as a whole. Rainfall below 90 percent of the LPA is classified as “deficient” by the IMD.
Meteorologists attribute the weaker rainfall outlook to the likely development of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The IMD said that neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently transitioning toward El Niño, which is typically associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India.
According to the weather agency, El Niño conditions are expected to remain weak during June but could strengthen to moderate or strong levels by September, potentially affecting rainfall distribution during the latter part of the monsoon season.