Persistent heavy rains and floods have disrupted crop prospects across several states, with Punjab and Rajasthan bearing the brunt, according to a report by Crisil Intelligence. While other regions have seen more localised effects, the coming weeks will be critical for the agriculture sector.
The southwest monsoon, which accounts for nearly 76% of India’s rainfall, plays a decisive role in shaping farm output, food prices, inflation, demand and consumption. Despite expanded irrigation, 40% of farmland remains rain-fed. In the past decade, rainfall deviations of -14% to +10% have consistently affected sowing, yields and prices. Erratic rainfall has also fuelled food inflation, with food items making up 47% of the Consumer Price Index and constituting 47% of rural and 40% of urban household expenditure.
Progress of Monsoon 2025
This year, the monsoon arrived early on May 24, advancing the sowing of paddy, maize, cotton, pulses and key horticultural crops such as onion, tomato and banana. By June 29, it had covered the entire country a day ahead of schedule. As of September 2, cumulative rainfall stood about 7% above the long-term average, with excess precipitation in Jharkhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana. In August, rainfall in Punjab and Telangana exceeded normal levels by more than 50%, with Punjab witnessing its worst floods in four decades.
Punjab reels under floods
Punjab’s 74% above-normal rainfall in August submerged around 70,000 hectares of farmland out of 4.24 million hectares. Major crops including paddy, sugarcane and cotton were hit:
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Paddy (tillering stage): Waterlogging may reduce yields by 5–10%.
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Sugarcane: Submergence raises red rot risks, cutting cane and sugar yields by 5–10% and hurting juice quality.
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Cotton (squaring stage): Flower drop and pink bollworm infestation could dent yields by 15–20%.
Horticulture has also suffered, with early cauliflower yields down 10–15% in Amritsar, Ludhiana, Moga and nearby districts. Tomato transplanting has been delayed, while guava and pear orchards show vulnerability to fungal diseases and pest attacks.
Spillover into Haryana
Border districts including Sirsa, Fatehabad and Jind have reported crop stress. Paddy fields show premature flowering, signalling lower output. Tomato yields are moderately affected, while August carrot sowing has been delayed due to waterlogging.
Localised impact in Uttar Pradesh
Flooding along the Yamuna, Ganga and tributaries has affected paddy in Lakhimpur, Gonda, Bahraich and Prayagraj, though overall damage remains limited. Losses have been reported for cucurbits in Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar and chilli in Ghazipur, Varanasi and Mirzapur. In Bundelkhand, early rains hampered groundnut and soybean sowing, while green gram and black gram sustained severe losses.
Rajasthan reports widespread damage
Heavy rainfall in Ajmer, Tonk, Kota, Bundi, Jaipur and Dausa has damaged bajra, jowar, soybean, groundnut and pulses:
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Bajra (flowering stage): Lodging threatens output.
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Jowar, soybean, groundnut: Submergence has caused stem rot and stunted growth.
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Pulses: Flower drop and poor pod setting point to significant yield losses.
While maize, paddy and cotton remain largely unaffected, farmers in Sikar warn that if heavy rains persist into mid-September, onion yields could be hit by bulb formation losses.
Southern states see mixed impact
In Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, flooding has been limited. Paddy, maize and cotton remain largely unaffected, though black gram and green gram yields have declined due to flower drop. Karnataka’s vegetables face disease pressures — tomato from blight, gourds from powdery mildew and onions from rot. Similar onion concerns have been flagged in Maharashtra.
Telangana, however, has witnessed severe floods. Cotton yields are likely to fall at the flowering stage, though paddy and maize have withstood the rains.
Crucial month ahead
With the India Meteorological Department projecting above-normal rainfall in September across northern and central India, the outlook for paddy, cotton, soybean, maize and onion remains uncertain. These crops are in key growth stages, making the next few weeks vital for yields and food price stability. Further production setbacks could intensify inflationary pressures, weighing on consumption and overall economic stability.