India’s crop outlook has weakened for 2026-27 in some key commodities, with the USDA sharply lowering its estimates for corn and rice amid erratic monsoon conditions. The September 2026 World Agricultural Production report puts India’s corn production at 50 million metric tons (MMT), down 4 percent from its August estimate and 9 percent from last year. Rice production is projected at 147 MMT, down 2 percent from August and 4.6 percent year-on-year.
The USDA report, based on information from its global agricultural network, official government statistics, economic data and satellite imagery, reflects estimates released in the September 11, 2026 WASDE report.
Corn takes the biggest hit
India’s corn outlook has deteriorated significantly. The USDA has reduced the 2026-27 production estimate from 52 MMT in August to 50 MMT, while the harvested area has been cut from 14.41 million hectares to 14 million hectares. Yield is also estimated lower at 3.57 tonnes per hectare, compared with 3.61 tonnes in August and 3.82 tonnes last year.
The revision reflects the impact of a delayed and uneven southwest monsoon. Around 75 percent of India’s corn is grown during the kharif season, making the crop particularly sensitive to rainfall. Although July rains helped accelerate planting, corn acreage as of September 4 remained 2 percent below last year. Satellite-based NDVI data also showed weaker crop vigour, especially in central India. Kharif corn harvesting began in September, while rabi planting will start in October.
The global corn picture is also weaker. USDA forecasts world corn production at 1,290.95 MMT, down 3 percent from 1,330.81 MMT in 2025-26. However, India’s decline is steeper than the global fall. The United States remains the largest producer at 401.33 MMT, followed by China at 307 MMT and Brazil at 139 MMT. Canada, in contrast, is expected to produce a record 16.8 MMT.
Rice outlook also lowered
USDA has reduced India’s 2026-27 rice production estimate to 147 MMT, from 150 MMT in August. This is also 7.02 MMT, or 4.56 percent, below the 154.02 MMT estimated for 2025-26. Harvested area has been reduced to 51 million hectares from 51.5 million hectares, while yield is projected at 4.32 tonnes per hectare.
The global rice outlook is comparatively weaker. World production is projected at 533.85 MMT, down 2.21 percent from 545.91 MMT in 2025/26. China, at 147 MMT, is now level with India in the USDA’s 2026-27 production estimate. Other major Asian producers include Bangladesh at 36.9 MMT, Indonesia at 33.6 MMT and Vietnam at 26.1 MMT.
Wheat remains a relative bright spot
Unlike corn and rice, India’s wheat outlook remains firm. USDA estimates 2026-27 wheat production at 121 MMT, unchanged from August but 2.6 percent above the previous year. The harvested area is estimated at 33.5 million hectares and yields at 3.61 tonnes per hectare. India therefore remains the world’s second-largest wheat producer behind China, whose output is projected at 141 MMT. World wheat production is forecast at 822.43 MMT, up 0.38 percent from August but 2.55 percent below 2025-26.
Oilseeds offer a mixed picture
India’s total oilseed production is projected at 41.2 MMT, marginally lower than the August estimate of 41.95 MMT but 1.12 percent above 2025-26. Soybean production, however, is estimated at 11 MMT, down from 11.5 MMT in August. By comparison, global soybean production is projected at a record 442.35 MMT, with Brazil at 186 MMT and the United States at 123.42 MMT.
Cotton is more stable for India. USDA retains India’s 2026-27 cotton production estimate at 24 million 480-pound bales, slightly above the previous year. Globally, however, cotton production is forecast at 117.32 million bales, down 3.8 percent year-on-year.
Overall, the September USDA report points to a divergent Indian crop outlook: wheat and cotton remain relatively resilient, while corn and rice face downward revisions linked largely to weather-related stress. The contrast with global production trends highlights how uneven rainfall is emerging as a key determinant of India’s 2026-27 crop prospects.