A new study conducted by agriculture economists and scientists at the Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) paints a grim picture of the harmful effects of a rise in minimum temperature on the yield of rice, maize and cotton. Besides affecting farm output, it will pose a threat to food security.
One of the most intriguing findings is that changes in minimum temperature have resulted in changes in mean temperature throughout all growing seasons. This means that the minimum temperature has shown a rising trend. The climate impacts on crops will vary widely in the Kharif and Rabi seasons.
Among the Kharif crops, maize yield is more responsive to temperature and rainfall than rice and cotton. “By the year 2050, maize yield would reduce by 13 per cent followed by cotton (about 11 per cent) and rice (about 1 per cent),” the report says. The negative impact would accumulate by 2080.
The yield loss will increase from 13 to 24 per cent for maize, from 11 per cent to 24 per cent for cotton, and from 1 per cent to 2 percent for rice, respectively. The yield response of wheat and potato would be pretty much the same for the year 2050.
Quite interestingly, by the year 2080, with a significant change in climate, the yield of wheat and potato will be higher by around 1 per cent each. This is because the excess minimum temperature is beneficial for potato and wheat yield.
The results indicate that, in general, productivity decreases with an increase in average temperature in most of the crops.
The adverse impact of climate change on agricultural production indicates a food security threat to the farming community.
The findings provide credence to the claim that the future climate scenario is not very welcoming. The results indicate that climate-smart packages must be incorporated into the agricultural development agenda at the policy level.
The study suggested focusing on linking farmers with financial institutions to boost their capacity to adapt to climate-smart technologies and practices.
The study published in the Mausam journal of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) earlier this month used rainfall and temperature data collected between 1986 and 2020 to project the impact of climate change on five major crops — rice, maize, cotton, wheat and potato — in the agrarian state of Punjab, which accounts for around 12 per cent of the total cereals produced in the country.
The researchers collected climate data from five weather observatories of PAU, i.e. Ludhiana, Patiala, Faridkot, Bathinda and SBS Nagar. They said that long-term changes in climatic variables showed that the rise in temperature was driving most of the changes, rather than the change in rainfall pattern.