Nitish Kumar returns to power for an unprecedented tenth term, but the political durability contrasts sharply with the fragility of the farm economy he has repeatedly promised to transform. The NDA’s 2025 manifesto puts agriculture front and centre, offering what it calls a historic leap — a legal Minimum Support Price (MSP) guarantee for all crops, something no state has attempted before. It is a headline-grabbing pledge aimed squarely at rural anger. But strip away the rhetoric, and Bihar’s agricultural machinery looks far too weak to carry such weight.
Bihar remains one of India’s poorest farm states. More than half its population still depends on agriculture, yet farm incomes trail the national average by miles. Landholdings are tiny, irrigation is inconsistent, and procurement is patchy. In many districts, farmers continue selling maize, paddy and pulses at prices far below MSP simply because the state machinery doesn’t show up.
Against this backdrop, the NDA’s promise feels both bold and risky. A universal MSP guarantee across dozens of crops means the state must either procure massively or compensate farmers for price gaps — both extremely expensive propositions. Bihar’s annual budget, a modest ₹3.17 lakh crore, leaves little room for sweeping, open-ended commitments.
And that is where economists begin to raise alarms. The latest AF-TAB journal, edited by noted agricultural economist Ashok Gulati, delivers a blunt reminder of what Bihar has avoided addressing for years. “The key is to move from subsistence staples to some high-value agriculture, which is market-driven and also climate-resilient,” Gulati writes.
His point slices through the pollspeak: MSP cannot rescue a stagnant farm economy if Bihar continues clinging to low-value cereals. Nor can Bihar afford a subsidy-heavy system without fixing the fundamentals — irrigation, storage, mandis, logistics and crop diversification.
Yet those fundamentals remain shaky. Bihar scrapped its APMC mandis in 2006, leaving farmers dependent on informal traders. The NDA now promises to revive 1,000+ mandis, but that will take years, not months. Most irrigation pumps run on diesel, making farming costlier than in neighbouring states with assured electricity. Storage capacity is inadequate; procurement agencies are understaffed; milling partnerships are inconsistent; and rural transport networks thin out beyond district towns.
Farmers know this better than anyone. In Khagaria, maize growers welcomed the MSP idea but laughed at its feasibility. “Rate toh sahi chahiye, par khaareedega kaun? Sarkar kabhi aayi hi nahi,” said farmer Mahendra Yadav. In Darbhanga, paddy farmers recalled procurement teams arriving late or not at all, forcing distress sales to traders.
This mismatch between political promise and administrative capability sits at the core of Bihar’s agricultural crisis. Nitish Kumar’s ten terms have delivered consistency in politics but not in farm reform. Some gains are real — rural roads, fertiliser access, more PACS involvement in procurement — yet they haven’t changed the state’s structural trajectory.
The NDA’s ₹1 lakh crore agriculture infrastructure plan sounds transformational on paper: cold chains, warehouses, food parks, irrigation upgrades, FPO support. But Bihar’s institutional track record makes implementation the real test. The state needs deep, systemic reform; instead, election cycles often drag the debate back to subsidies and welfare.
The NDA’s MSP guarantee is therefore a gamble. If executed, it could redefine MSP politics nationally. If it falters — as many fear — it will become another entry in Bihar’s long ledger of broken agricultural promises.
Gulati’s warning hangs over Nitish’s tenth term like a cautionary footnote: Bihar cannot prosper by doubling down on low-productivity cereals and politically convenient schemes. It must shift to high-value, climate-resilient agriculture or risk locking another generation of farmers into the same stagnant model.
Nitish may have won the mandate. But Bihar’s agriculture — the backbone of its society and politics — is demanding something far tougher than votes: transformation.
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