EU milk output likely to shrink further by 2026 as dairy sector shifts focus to cheese
Milk production in the European Union is projected to decline further through 2026 due to falling dairy cow numbers and a strategic shift toward cheese production. According to the USDA, the focus on higher-value dairy products reflects efforts to improve profitability, adapt to changing consumer demand and strengthen Europe’s position in global dairy markets.
Join the RuralVoice whatsapp group
Milk production in the European Union is expected to continue declining through 2026, driven by a steady reduction in dairy cow numbers and a strategic shift within the industry toward cheese manufacturing, according to the latest outlook from the US Department of Agriculture.
The European dairy sector is undergoing structural changes as producers increasingly prioritise value-added products over liquid milk. Cheese, which offers higher profitability and stronger export potential, has emerged as a key focus area as the industry responds to evolving consumer preferences and competitive global markets.
Recent assessments indicate that the EU dairy herd is set to contract further, limiting overall milk output across the bloc. This decline reflects long-term adjustments aimed at improving efficiency and aligning production with market demand rather than expanding raw milk volumes.
The USDA’s forecast, released as part of its regular agricultural market analysis, suggests that the transition toward cheese production is a deliberate strategy to strengthen the global position of European dairy products. By concentrating on higher-margin segments, the sector is seeking to offset pressures arising from rising costs, environmental constraints and sustainability requirements.
A continued drop in milk production could affect the supply balance of dairy products within the EU, potentially influencing prices in domestic markets. At the same time, increased cheese output may help the region expand its presence in international markets, where demand for specialised and premium dairy products remains strong.
The analysis underscores the changing dynamics of Europe’s dairy industry, which is adapting to herd reductions, tighter environmental regulations and shifting consumption patterns. As milk output declines, the emphasis on cheese and other value-added products is expected to play a central role in shaping the sector’s growth strategy over the coming years.
