The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has released its first advance estimates of sugar production for the 2025-26 sugar season, projecting a robust gross production of 343.5 lakh tons before diversion to ethanol — marking a significant 16% increase over last year's 296.1 lakh tons.
Based on post-monsoon satellite imagery captured in the third week of October, ISMA estimates the country's total sugarcane acreage at 57.35 lakh hectares, a marginal rise from 57.11 lakh hectares in the previous season.
The findings were reviewed during ISMA's Executive Committee meeting on November 4, attended by representatives from sugar-producing states nationwide. The assessment factored in imagery analysis, field reports, expected yields, sugar recovery rates, rainfall patterns, and reservoir water availability.
State-Wise Highlights
- Maharashtra: Sugarcane area has expanded by 6% to 14.71 lakh hectares from 13.82 lakh hectares last year. Abundant rainfall, sufficient reservoir water, and a higher share of plant cane have led to "good to very good" crop conditions. Gross sugar production is forecasted to jump 39% to 130 lakh tons, up from 93.51 lakh tons.
- Karnataka: A similar 6% increase in cane area to 6.8 lakh hectares from 6.4 lakh hectares, bolstered by favorable rains and water availability, is expected to yield a 16% rise in gross production to 63.5 lakh tons from 54.89 lakh tons.
- Uttar Pradesh: Cane area dipped 3% to 22.57 lakh hectares from 23.30 lakh hectares, but enhanced crop health—supported by mill-level development programs, timely interventions, and varietal replacements to curb diseases like red rot—should boost yields and recovery. Gross production is estimated at 103.2 lakh tons, slightly above last year's 101.01 lakh tons.
(Figures in Lac tons)
|
S. No |
States |
2024-25 SS (P) |
2025-26 SS 1st Advance estimates (November’25) |
|
1 |
Maharashtra |
93.51 |
130.0 |
|
2 |
Karnataka |
54.89 |
63.5 |
|
3 |
Uttar Pradesh |
101.01 |
103.2 |
|
4 |
Others |
46.69 |
46.8 |
|
5 |
Gross Total (estimated) |
296.10 |
343.5 |
|
6 |
Estimated diversion towards ethanol |
35.01 |
34 |
|
7 |
Net sugar production |
261.08 |
309.5 |
Comfortable Balance Sheet
After accounting for an estimated 34 lakh tons of diversion towards ethanol production, net sugar production for 2025-26 is projected at 309.5 lakh tons.
With an opening stock of 50 lakh tons and domestic consumption pegged at 285 lakh tons, closing stocks by Sept 2026 are expected at 74.5 lakh tons — indicating a comfortable availability position. Estimated balance sheet for the season 2025-26 SS will be as follows:
- Opening stock (October 1, 2025): 50 lakh tons
- Net sugar production: 309.5 lakh tons
- Total availability: 359.5 lakh tons
- Internal consumption: 285 lakh tons
- Closing stock (September 30, 2026): 74.5 lakh tons
Industry Seeks Export Policy Clarity
With a comfortable sugar balance, ISMA believes India is well-positioned to export nearly 20 lakh tons this season. The association has strongly urged the government to announce the export policy at the earliest, enabling mills to plan their raw and white sugar production strategies proactively.