The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2026 by 3.4 million tonnes (MT) from its July estimate to 2,980 MT, with output now expected to decline by 61.1 MT, or 2 percent, from the previous year. Despite the decline, the harvest would remain the second-largest on record, according to the latest FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.
The downward revision is largely driven by maize. FAO has reduced its global maize production forecast to 1,309 MT, 0.6 percent below its June projection. The main factor is deteriorating crop prospects in the European Union, particularly France and Poland, where persistent summer heat and dryness have damaged crops and reduced yield expectations below five-year averages. Smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay also contributed to the decline.
These reductions were partly offset by stronger production prospects in Argentina and Brazil, where better-than-expected yields are expected to result in above-average maize output.
Wheat Outlook Improves, Rice Declines
In contrast, FAO has raised its 2026 global wheat production forecast by 4.2 MT, or 0.5 percent, to 810.7 MT. However, production would still be 3.8 percent below last year's level. Higher forecasts for Canada and Morocco, along with improved prospects in Russia and Ukraine, more than offset reductions expected in the European Union and the United Kingdom due to high temperatures and inadequate rainfall.
Global rice production in 2026-27 is projected at 553.1 MT on a milled basis, down 1.9 percent from the revised 2025-26 estimate. FAO attributed the decline to weaker producer margins and adverse weather conditions often associated with El Niño.
Stocks and Consumption Under Pressure
Global cereal utilization in 2026-27 is forecast at 2,965 MT, up 0.2 percent from the previous season. Rice consumption is expected to reach 559 MT, supported by population-driven growth in food demand.
However, global cereal stocks at the end of the 2026-27 marketing seasons have been cut by 10.7 MT to 947.2 MT. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 31.6 percent, slightly below 31.9 percent in the previous season, although FAO considers overall supplies relatively comfortable by historical standards.
Global Trade Faces Black Sea Uncertainty
FAO has marginally raised its 2026/27 global cereal trade forecast to 509.3 MT, mainly because of stronger maize trade prospects. The United States is expected to retain its position as the world's largest maize exporter, while Argentina's exports could reach 39 MT.
At the same time, uncertainty over Black Sea export flows remains significant because of shipping, logistics and alternative-route capacity constraints. FAO expects global cereal trade to nevertheless remain below the record level reached in 2025/26.
International rice trade in 2026 has been raised to 60.5 MT, but is still expected to decline 1.9 percent from the 2025 record as Asian and African import demand weakens.