Global cereal production is set to exceed 3 billion tonnes for the first time, driven by stronger-than-expected output of wheat, coarse grains and rice, according to the latest forecast by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The agency has revised its 2025 world cereal production estimate upward to 3,003 million tonnes, buoyed largely by improved wheat prospects in Argentina, the European Union and the United States.
Argentina is expected to achieve a record wheat harvest this year, supported by larger plantings and favourable weather. Wheat production estimates for the EU and the US have also been raised. Global coarse grain output too has increased marginally, mainly due to higher barley production. For rice, FAO upgraded Indonesia’s forecast as expanded cultivation is likely to boost offseason harvests. Improved crop prospects in Bangladesh and Japan further lifted global rice production projections for 2025-26 to a record 558.8 million tonnes.
Planting for the 2026 winter wheat crop is progressing across the northern hemisphere. In the United States, sowing is nearing completion though dryness has lowered crop conditions compared to last year. The European Union is witnessing mostly favourable sowing conditions, except for rainfall deficits in parts of Italy. Russia and Ukraine have reported improved soil conditions, raising expectations of a rebound in Ukraine’s wheat area despite remaining below pre-war levels. India and Pakistan are expected to expand wheat acreage in response to attractive prices and supportive policies.
In the southern hemisphere, planting of 2026 coarse grain crops is underway. Argentina is projected to rebound on the back of higher maize plantings supported by early-season rains. Brazil, driven by strong domestic and export demand, is likely to expand maize acreage further. South Africa expects a marginal increase in maize plantings, particularly for yellow maize, encouraged by favourable rainfall forecasts.
World cereal utilization in 2025-26 is projected to rise by 59.2 million tonnes, or 2.1 percent, led by increased demand for maize and rice. Abundant supplies and stable prices are expected to boost feed use of coarse grains, while feed-quality wheat may substitute for costlier non-cereal alternatives. Rice utilization is forecast to reach a record 552.8 million tonnes.
Global cereal stocks at the close of the 2026 season are estimated at 925.5 million tonnes, revised further upward this month. Wheat reserves are set to rise sharply in China and India, while coarse grain stocks are expected to build up in major exporters such as Brazil and the United States. Wheat stocks in Argentina and the US have been lifted following improved harvest expectations, while Brazil’s maize stocks have been adjusted upward after estimates for its segunda safra crop were raised. The stocks-to-use ratio for major exporters is projected to reach 22.3 percent, the highest since the early 1990s.
Rice stocks are forecast at 216.8 million tonnes at the end of 2025-26, bolstered mainly by higher carryover expectations for Indonesia. At this level, global rice inventories would surpass their opening levels by 2.8 percent, enough to cover 4.6 months of world consumption.
International trade in cereals in 2025-26 is forecast at 500.6 million tonnes, up 3.3 percent from the previous year. Wheat trade is expected to rebound due to renewed import demand from Pakistan, Türkiye and several Asian countries amid stable prices and comfortable global supplies. Coarse grain trade is also set to grow, with Brazil emerging as a key sorghum exporter. Wheat exports from Argentina have been revised upward, with neighbouring countries like Ecuador likely to absorb part of its record output.
Global rice trade in 2026 is projected at 61.2 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from last month’s estimate but 1.4 percent lower than 2025 expectations, largely because of reduced import requirements in several Asian markets.