Global oilseed markets are facing mounting pressure as bumper harvests in the United States and Canada, coupled with trade tensions involving China, weigh on prices and disrupt export flows. According to recent data and reports from international agencies, soybean and rapeseed markets have experienced volatility in recent weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions, export taxes, and fluctuating global demand.
The US and Canadian oilseed harvests have pushed global prices lower, while China’s retaliatory measures against tariffs from Washington and Ottawa have deepened the market strain. Beijing’s suspension of US soybean imports in response to US tariffs, and its halt on Canadian rapeseed imports following Canada’s electric vehicle tariff, have removed two major export outlets for North American producers.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s newly introduced 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed has slowed its shipments. The USDA attaché in Kyiv reported on August 29 that exporters reduced prices offered to farmers in anticipation of paying duties. European traders also noted subdued activity as they adapted to the new system.
The International Grains Council (IGC), in its Grain Market Report released on September 18, noted that while overall export prices were marginally firmer due to weather-related concerns in the US and Brazil, the gains were offset by weak demand from China. The IGC’s sub-index showed US Gulf FOB prices up 1% to $409, while Brazilian export values (Paranaguá) rose 1% year-on-year to $448, supported by steady Chinese demand and rising domestic use of soy oil for biofuels.
In contrast, Canadian canola futures declined 3% month-on-month as the advancing harvest improved production prospects, overshadowing gains in vegetable oil prices. The Vancouver FOB value fell by $23 to $479, according to the IGC.
The FAO Food Price Index for September 5 showed global vegetable oil prices 1.4% higher in August, the highest since July 2022, driven by strong demand for palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils. However, soy oil prices declined slightly amid expectations of abundant global soybean supplies in 2025–26. The FAO attributed rising palm oil prices to robust global import demand and Indonesia’s plan to expand its biodiesel blending mandate in 2026.
According to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), US soybean export sales remain sluggish amid stiff competition from Brazil and Argentina, which continue to ship aggressively during the US peak export window (October–December).
The ERS further reported that China’s rapeseed crush is projected to decline due to reduced imports from Canada following tariffs imposed in August 2025 on rapeseed and related products earlier in March. As a result, China is expected to source more rapeseed meal from Russia and India to fill the gap.
Overall, the oilseed market remains caught between expanding harvests, soft export demand, and rising geopolitical tensions — factors likely to keep global prices under pressure through the final quarter of 2025.