Joining a growing list of global agencies revising crop prospects lower, the International Grains Council (IGC) has cut its forecast for world grain production in 2026-27, citing heatwave damage to Europe's maize crop and mounting uncertainty over Black Sea exports due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict. The latest downgrade comes after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also trimmed its outlook, reinforcing concerns over tightening global grain supplies despite another historically large harvest.
The IGC now projects total global grains production at 2.422 billion tonnes, 5 million tonnes lower than its previous estimate and 69 million tonnes below last season's record of 2.49 billion tonnes. The decline is primarily attributed to lower maize and wheat production, along with smaller oat, sorghum and rye harvests.
Europe's maize crop has been hit by successive heatwaves, forcing the Council to trim its production outlook. Global maize output is now pegged at 1.306 billion tonnes in 2026-27, down from the previous forecast of 1.31 billion tonnes, although still above the 1.242 billion tonnes estimated for 2024-25. Global maize consumption is projected at a record 1.323 billion tonnes, while carryover stocks are expected to decline sharply to 293 million tonnes from 311 million tonnes a year earlier.
Overall grain consumption is forecast at a record 2.447 billion tonnes, only marginally lower than the previous month's estimate. However, tighter supplies are expected to reduce global carryover stocks by 26 million tonnes year-on-year to 610 million tonnes, well below average levels.
The report noted that export prospects from major Black Sea suppliers remain highly uncertain despite expectations of sizeable shipments. Intensified Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted export logistics, increasing risks to global grain flows. Nevertheless, world grain trade has been revised upward by 5 million tonnes from last month to 450 million tonnes, largely because of stronger maize import demand, although it remains below last season's 467 million tonnes.
The IGC also trimmed its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast to 821 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to rise to 828 million tonnes, further tightening supplies. Wheat carryover stocks are projected to slip to 279 million tonnes, with exports from major exporters falling to 61 million tonnes.
For rice, the Council expects global production to edge down to 543 million tonnes (milled basis) in 2026/27 due to smaller harvests in Asia and the Americas. Even so, world rice consumption is projected to increase to a record 544 million tonnes on rising food demand across Asia and Africa. Global rice trade is forecast to climb to a record 62 million tonnes, while stocks are expected to slip slightly to 195 million tonnes. The report also highlighted tightening supplies in dry peas, with global production expected to fall by 14% because of smaller crops in Russia and Canada.
In oilseeds, global soyabean production is forecast at a record 441 million tonnes, supported by larger crops in Brazil and the United States. Soyabean trade is expected to reach an all-time high of 190 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year, driven by sustained Asian import demand. However, global soyabean stocks are projected to ease to 75 million tonnes, marking a second consecutive annual decline.