India is likely to surpass previous records in wheat acreage during the 2026-27 rabi season, supported by favourable farm economics and government assistance. However, the actual size of the 2027 harvest will largely depend on weather conditions in the coming months, particularly the possible impact of El Nino during April and May, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
In its latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, the UN agency said wheat sowing for the 2027 harvest is progressing across India and other parts of the Far East. Planting is taking place under broadly favourable soil moisture conditions. The predominantly irrigated crop is expected to be harvested between March and June next year.
The FAO attributed the expected expansion in India's wheat acreage to policy support, particularly the minimum support price (MSP) offered to farmers and subsidies on fertilisers. These incentives are expected to encourage growers to bring more land under wheat cultivation.
India's wheat production has maintained an upward trajectory in recent years. Output reached 117.19 million tonnes in 2025 before climbing to an all-time high of 120.7 million tonnes in 2026. This was substantially higher than the average annual production of 111.8 million tonnes recorded over the preceding five years.
Across the Far East, planting prospects vary between major wheat-producing countries. China, the region's largest producer, is expected to maintain wheat acreage broadly in line with its five-year average. Pakistan, on the other hand, could see an increase in cultivated area as exceptionally high domestic wheat prices are likely to improve returns for farmers. Several smaller wheat-producing countries in the region are also expected to expand sowing in response to rising domestic demand for wheat-based food products.
El Nino poses weather uncertainty
Despite encouraging planting prospects, the FAO cautioned that favourable acreage alone may not translate into a record harvest. Weather developments until April-May 2027 will be critical in determining crop performance, with the ongoing El Nino phenomenon emerging as an important factor.
El Nino conditions are generally associated with above-normal rainfall from October to April in several important wheat-growing regions. These include the Korean Peninsula, central and eastern parts of mainland China, central and northern Pakistan, and large parts of Afghanistan.
While additional rainfall could improve crop growth by replenishing soil moisture, excessive precipitation may also result in localised flooding and damage to standing crops, the FAO observed.
The impact of precipitation could be different in mountainous and colder agricultural regions. At higher elevations and latitudes, a considerable share of the expected precipitation may arrive as snowfall. A sufficient snow layer could act as insulation against frost and protect winter crops during the colder months.
The subsequent melting of snow during spring could also increase soil moisture and replenish water reservoirs. This may provide additional water availability for spring- and summer-season crops in 2027.