India’s agricultural outlook for marketing year (MY) 2026/27 presents a mixed picture, with wheat and rice production remaining strong while corn, oilseeds and cotton face weather-related setbacks. Globally, favourable conditions have improved crop prospects in Argentina, Australia and Kazakhstan, while drought and heat stress have reduced production estimates in parts of the Americas and Southern Africa, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
India: Wheat and Rice Remain Resilient, Coarse Grains and Cotton Face Pressure
India’s agricultural production in MY 2026/27 is being shaped by an erratic southwest monsoon, which delivered cumulative rainfall 13 percent below the long-period average. While favourable soil conditions and higher acreage have supported wheat production, inadequate and uneven rainfall, particularly during critical crop growth stages, has affected the prospects of several kharif crops.
According to USDA estimates, India's wheat production is projected at 121 million metric tons, unchanged from the previous month's forecast but higher than 117.95 million metric tons recorded in the previous year. The increase is supported by an expansion in harvested area to 33.5 million hectares from 32.8 million hectares. Average yield is estimated at 3.61 tons per hectare.
Wheat has remained relatively resilient despite dry spells in some regions, with favourable soil moisture conditions and a strong production base helping sustain output prospects.
Rice production is projected at 147 million metric tons of milled rice from an estimated harvested area of 51 million hectares. Although India continues to maintain a strong production outlook, the USDA has factored in some late-season adjustments due to uneven monsoon distribution and localized weather stress in important rice-growing states.
The outlook for coarse grains is less favourable. India's corn production is projected at 50 million metric tons from 14 million hectares. Early-season dry conditions and high temperatures affected crop development and reduced yield potential. Consequently, corn and overall coarse grain production are expected to contract compared with previous record levels.
Oilseed production has also faced weather-related constraints. India's soybean output is estimated at 10.7 million metric tons from 12 million hectares, with average yield projected at 0.89 tons per hectare. Total production of major oilseeds is estimated at around 40.7 million metric tons. Lower soil moisture availability during critical growth stages has restricted yield expansion, keeping production below its potential.
Cotton is another crop facing production pressure. The USDA has estimated India's MY 2026/27 cotton production at 23.5 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from its previous projection. Harvested area remains unchanged at 11.5 million hectares, while yield is estimated at 445 kg per hectare.
Cotton cultivation in India is predominantly rainfed, with central and southern regions accounting for approximately 61 percent and 24 percent of the crop area, respectively. Delayed planting during the early season, followed by heat stress, affected plant growth and boll formation, resulting in lower yield prospects.
Global: Argentina, Australia Gain; Drought Hits Americas and Africa
Global crop prospects in MY 2026/27 are increasingly reflecting sharp regional differences in weather conditions, with favourable moisture supporting production in some major agricultural exporters while prolonged drought and heat stress are affecting output elsewhere.
In South America, Argentina has recorded a significant improvement in wheat prospects. Its MY 2026/27 wheat production estimate has been raised by 7 percent from the previous month to 23 million metric tons. Favourable soil moisture and the absence of significant evaporative stress in key central provinces have supported crop development. Argentina's corn acreage has also expanded as farmers brought forward planting to avoid pest-related risks.
Brazil's corn production for MY 2026/27 is estimated at 141 million metric tons, slightly higher than the previous month's projection, supported by an expansion in first-crop planting. The country had already recorded a record corn harvest of 144.5 million metric tons in MY 2025/26, driven by exceptional yields from its second-crop safrinha harvest.
However, drought and high temperatures have weakened crop prospects in other parts of the Americas. In Mexico, El Niño-related heat stress has forced farmers to abandon more than 650,000 hectares of rainfed spring-summer corn. Consequently, the country's total corn production is projected at 24 million metric tons.
Nicaragua has also suffered substantial agricultural losses. Prolonged drought in the Pacific Dry Corridor has severely affected rainfed rice cultivation, resulting in a 16 percent month-on-month reduction in the country's rice production estimate to 225,000 metric tons.
In Southern Africa, delayed arrival of October rains has prompted South African farmers to reduce their commercial corn planting intentions by 12 percent. Some acreage is being shifted towards sunflowerseed, which is considered more tolerant of dry conditions.
In contrast, Australia has benefited from favourable growing conditions. The USDA has raised its MY 2026/27 wheat production estimate to 32.5 million metric tons and rapeseed output to 8.4 million metric tons. Late-season rainfall in Victoria and New South Wales has played an important role in improving crop prospects.
In Eurasia, Kazakhstan's wheat production estimate has been revised upward by 5 percent to 15.8 million metric tons following the completion of its grain harvest. Russia, meanwhile, is expected to produce 20.4 million metric tons of sunflowerseed. Lower yields have slightly reduced its production outlook despite record overall planted area.