In the summer of 2024, Japan faced an unexpected rice shortage, leading to confusion as supermarket shelves emptied. While such supply dips before the October harvest are typical, this year's crisis was worsened by several unique factors. Despite normal rice production in 2023, unpredictable weather reduced the share of high-quality rice. Some of the lower-quality yield was discarded, further reducing the available stock.
Rising demand also contributed to the shortage. A surge in post-pandemic tourism and household stockpiling, spurred by earthquake warnings from the Japan Meteorological Agency, created extra pressure on the already limited supply. Consumers, wary after the Miyazaki earthquake in August, rushed to purchase rice.
Masayoshi Honma, a professor at the Asian Growth Research Institute, highlighted this in an article published in the East Asia Forum. It says, the demand for rice is growing despite declining consumption trends. Per capita rice consumption fell from 118 kg in 1962 to just 51 kg in 2022. The Japanese government’s policy of restricting rice production to maintain high prices has further strained supply. Rice production has dropped dramatically, from 14.3 million tons in 1967 to just 7.3 million tons in 2022, making the system vulnerable to minor disruptions.
While the government has a rice stockpile of 910,000 tons meant for emergencies, officials refused to release any of it during this crisis, insisting that the situation would resolve itself with the upcoming harvest. Releasing the reserves, however, could lower prices, a move unpopular with the farming sector - a key support base for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ahead of upcoming elections.
In the short term, rice distributors and producers are benefiting from rising prices, with prices for new rice surging by 30-40% compared to last year. However, long-term trends suggest that consumption will continue to decline, with rice consumption projected to fall to 3.75 million tons by 2040. As prices drop in the future, pressure on the government to protect rice producers is expected to increase.
This crisis has underscored the shortcomings of Japan’s food security policies. By prioritising producers over consumers and neglecting to manage public anxiety, the government missed an opportunity to instill confidence during the shortage. Effective food security requires more than just maintaining physical supplies - it also involves reassuring the public through transparent planning and communication.
As Japan re-evaluates its agricultural policies, it has the chance to adopt a more resilient and consumer-focused approach, balancing the interests of producers with the need to maintain trust and stability during crises.