COCERAL Forecasts Lower EU Grain Harvest in 2026; Wheat Output Seen Declining, Corn Production Set to Recover

In its first outlook for the 2026 season, the European association of trade in cereals & oilseeds, COCERAL has projected a decline in grain production across the EU-27 and the UK, with total output estimated at 296.7 million tonnes. This would be lower than the 306.6 million tonnes harvested in 2025, as crop yields are expected to ease back to more normal levels after an exceptionally strong year.

Wheat production, excluding durum, is forecast at 143.9 million tonnes, down from 147.5 million tonnes in 2025. Although yields are expected to fall from last year’s unusually high levels, rainfall in recent months has improved soil moisture, supporting healthy crop development across much of the EU ahead of winter. Wheat plantings are expected to be marginally higher than last year.

Barley output is also projected to decline, with production estimated at 58.2 million tonnes compared with 63.2 million tonnes in 2025. The drop is largely attributed to lower yields returning to average levels. Spain is expected to see the sharpest fall after excellent yields last year, while production in the UK is likely to be hit by a reduction in planted area.

For corn, COCERAL expects a recovery in 2026 following the drought-affected crop in 2025. However, the outlook remains constrained by shrinking plantings, as farmers in several regions have been discouraged by poor yields in recent years. Acreage is expected to continue declining, particularly in France and the Balkan countries, as growers switch to alternative spring crops such as sunflowers and soybeans.

If these trends materialize, EU corn acreage would be around 15 percent lower than in 2020, falling from more than 9 million hectares to below 8 million hectares. Corn production in 2026 is forecast at 58.9 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 57.1 million tonnes produced in 2025.

Rapeseed output in 2026 is projected at 21.8 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year. While yields are expected to return to average levels after a strong performance in 2025, this is likely to be offset by a notable expansion in planted area, which is forecast to rise from 7.1 million hectares to 7.5 million hectares. COCERAL noted that farmgate prices during the main rapeseed planting window in August and September were particularly attractive, encouraging higher sowings.