Navigating road ahead to be challenging for NDA coalition

Can the incoming  NDA government run on a smooth surface or let's put it this way - will the coalition have a smooth surface to stay steady for five years?

Well, the intention to stay together for five years and even beyond was aired live from the majestic Central Hall of the old Parliament  building. In his long acceptance speech showing no concession  to the INDIA alliance, Narendra Modi listed good governance to be the core character of the NDA whose history was traced to the Atal Bihari Vajpayee era. Of course, this is not a ragtag coalition, stitched together by seasoned politicians like Nitish Kumar and N Chandrababu Naidu. Why should doubts arise then? 

Such doubts should not arise - after all Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, both had been partners in the NDA Government of Atal Bihari Government! That is perfectly true, but Modi is no Vajpayee and expecting him to be one would be asking for too much. Given the chemistry at least on display in the Central Hall between the trio - Modi, Naidu and Nitish- one should believe that there should be a good coordination amongst them, a hotline kind of connect; and they should be able to iron out any major issue that holds or even has to potential to hold any threat to the coalition. When it comes to ticklish issues like Uniform Civil Code or any other hardline Hindutva agenda, they can ingeniously be put on the backburner or kept out of the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) Yes, there would certainly be hard bargains by the two regional satraps. 

The bargains have to be of two types. One, given their chequered relations in the past and the BJP's reputation gobbling up the regional parties through friendly or unfriendly means, both Nitish and Naidu would want a kind of a ring-fence around their MPs . Jockeying for the Lok Sabha Speaker's post should be seen in that context. Second, the bargains would relate to extracting maximum Central funds for Andhra Pradesh and Bihar - Modi would be prepared for this and may even go an extra mile for removal of any Constitutional obstacle. So, the bargain part of the story should not surprise us - any coalition formation with this kind of a hung Parliament is unavoidable even if  there would be gains for some conflicting interests and losses to the other. 'Can't help it ' , Modi would say. 

Now the difficult and most tricky part of the partnership over which the leadership trio would have no control themselves. What is that going to be? Are they not strong enough to handle any unfolding situation even if it is unexpected and unpleasant? No one knows and that is going to be a worry for the stability of the  coalition. The genesis of this problem lies in the domineering avatar of  BJP of the Modi era with Hindutva at the core of its ideology on the one hand and secular nature of Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United) on the other hand, enjoying esteem with a sizable Muslim voter base. Be it the Citizen (Amendment) Act or abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution giving special treatment to Jammu and Kashmir, the previous edition of the BJP Government with full majority on its own, is used to having its way, come what may. JD(U) leaders have already spoken about their stance vis-a-vis Muslims, asserting no anti Muslim narrative would be allowed in the coalition. 

There are a few more issues like Minimum Support Price for farmers, revamp or dumping of Agniveer, controversial recruitment scheme for Armed forces. These have yielded political dividends for the Congress and other Modi opponents. The rural distress which is so evident in election results in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, even in Bihar should be seemingly addressed by the in coming NDA coalition. The Nitish pressure is seen coming on  Modi and it is a matter of time before farmers see their demands met, thanks to political expediency of the time.     

Net- net, without giving any prophecy, the new coalition would either see a somewhat secular face of the partners,  at least for now or face instability with costs to India's political economy.