Wheat cultivation in the United States may fall to its lowest level in more than a century in 2026, highlighting a structural shift in cropping patterns as farmers increasingly move away from the grain.
According to the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report, total wheat planted area is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realised, this would mark the smallest wheat acreage in the US since records began in 1919, underscoring the long-term decline in wheat’s share of the country’s crop mix.
The contraction is visible across all major wheat categories. Winter wheat acreage is pegged at 32.4 million acres, lower than both last year and earlier estimates. Spring wheat area is projected at 9.42 million acres, down 6% year-on-year, while durum wheat has seen the sharpest drop, falling 11% to 1.95 million acres.
An USDA report in March 2024 stated that the total number of wheat farms fell by more than 40%, from 169,528 in 2002 to 97,014 in 2022. Area harvested remained below 40 million acres from marketing year 2017-18 through 2023-24. It was 56 million acres in 2009-09.
The decline in wheat area comes amid a broader rebalancing of crop choices. Corn acreage is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down about 3% from last year, reflecting reduced plantings across key producing states such as Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska and the Dakotas.
In contrast, soybean acreage is expected to rise to 84.7 million acres, up 4% from 2025, with gains across much of the Midwest. The shift indicates farmers are responding to evolving price dynamics and crop rotation patterns, favouring soybeans over both corn and wheat.
Among other crops, sorghum acreage is projected at 6.12 million acres, down from last year, while barley (2.35 million acres) and oats (2.36 million acres) remain largely stable. Though smaller in scale, these crops continue to hold regional importance.
The report, one of the most closely tracked indicators of early-season trends, suggests that while overall acreage remains broadly stable, its composition is changing. Wheat, in particular, continues to lose ground amid economic and agronomic pressures.
However, the USDA cautions that final planting decisions will depend on spring weather conditions and market movements. Even so, the current projections reinforce a clear trend - wheat acreage in the US is under sustained pressure, with 2026 potentially marking a historic low.