The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with an increasing probability that annual temperatures will temporarily breach the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels.
According to the latest Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update, produced by the UK Met Office on behalf of WMO, annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The report states there is an 86% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. It also projects a 91% chance that global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years.
The update further notes a 75% likelihood that the average temperature for the 2026-2030 period as a whole will remain above the 1.5°C threshold. However, scientists said it remains highly unlikely that any single year in the next five years will exceed 2°C of warming.
Dr. Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said an El Niño event expected by the end of 2026 could further raise temperatures globally. “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” he said.
The report highlighted that Arctic temperatures are warming much faster than the global average. Temperatures in the Arctic during the next five northern hemisphere winters are projected to be about 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average, more than three times the expected global mean anomaly for the same period. Scientists also warned of continued reductions in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
The report projects wetter-than-average conditions in northern high latitudes over the coming winters, while subtropical regions, especially in the southern hemisphere, are likely to face drier conditions. Predicted rainfall patterns for 2026-2030 indicate wetter conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while the Amazon region may experience below-average rainfall.
The WMO clarified that the 1.5°C and 2°C targets under the Paris Agreement are based on long-term warming trends measured over decades, and temporary annual exceedances do not mean the agreement’s goals are unattainable.
The climate update was prepared using forecasts from 13 international institutes, including the Met Office, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. The forecasts are intended to support governments and climate agencies in planning for future climate risks and adaptation measures.