Global Wheat, Rice and Coarse Grain Output Under Pressure; India’s Wheat and Rice Production Remains Strong

Global agricultural production is set to remain under pressure in 2026/27, with the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates showing lower output of wheat, coarse grains and cotton compared with the previous year, even as oilseed production is expected to rise. Against this global backdrop, India continues to remain a major production centre, with wheat output projected at a record 121 million tonnes, rice at 150 million tonnes, while coarse grain production is forecast at 71.3 million tonnes. The USDA’s August 2026 World Agricultural Production report is based on estimates released in its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Wheat: Global output eases, India holds at 121 MT

Global wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast at 819.3 million tonnes, marginally below the 819.97 million tonnes projected in July and 2.85% below the 2025/26 estimate of 843.35 million tonnes. The decline reflects lower production prospects in several major producers. European Union wheat output has been cut to 134.2 million tonnes, 7.5% below last year, with prolonged hot and dry weather reducing yields, particularly in western Europe. Brazil’s wheat crop is projected at only 6.1 million tonnes, while Australia’s output is estimated at 28 million tonnes.
India, however, remains an important positive factor in the global wheat outlook. USDA has retained its 2026/27 wheat production estimate at 121 million tonnes, unchanged from July and 2.59% higher than the 117.95 million tonnes estimated for 2025/26. India’s wheat yield is estimated at 3.61 tonnes per hectare, with harvested area at 33.5 million hectares.

Rice: Global production steady, India remains dominant

Global milled rice production is forecast at 537.3 million tonnes in 2026/27, virtually unchanged from July’s 537.2 million tonnes but below the 545.5 million tonnes estimated for 2025/26. The relatively ample availability of rice in India remains an important factor for global supplies.

India’s rice production is projected at 150 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous month and broadly stable compared with the previous year’s 154 million tonnes. The USDA’s outlook also reflects India’s strong export position. The report notes that India’s ample exportable supplies have helped maintain its position as the leading rice exporter, with competitive prices supporting international demand.

Coarse grains: Global crop declines, India also lower

Global coarse grain production, covering corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains, is projected at 1.593 billion tonnes in 2026/27, marginally higher than July but 2.15% below 2025/26. The outlook is being affected by sharp production cuts in the European Union, where corn output is forecast at just 50.2 million tonnes—the lowest since 2007/08—because of prolonged hot and dry weather.

India’s coarse grain production is estimated at 71.3 million tonnes, unchanged from July but 4.42% below the previous year’s 74.59 million tonnes. Corn production alone is projected at 52 million tonnes, down 5.61% from 55.09 million tonnes in 2025/26.

Oilseeds: Global output rises, India at 43 MT

Unlike grains, global oilseed production is expected to increase. USDA projects 2026/27 global oilseed output at 721.02 million tonnes, up 0.15% from July and 2.91% from 2025/26. Major contributors include Brazil, Argentina and Canada, where favourable conditions and expanded acreage are supporting production. Canada’s rapeseed crop, for example, is forecast at a record 22.5 million tonnes.
India’s total oilseed production is projected at around 43 million tonnes in 2026/27. The country remains a significant producer, although its output is dwarfed by the much larger crops expected in Brazil and the United States.

Cotton: Global output falls, India holds steady

Global cotton production is forecast at 117.63 million 480-pound bales in 2026/27, up slightly from July but 3.55% below 2025/26. China’s crop is projected at 33.5 million bales, while Brazil’s output is raised to 18.25 million bales on improved yield prospects.

India’s cotton production is projected at 24 million 480-pound bales, unchanged from July and 0.84% above the previous year. With harvested area estimated at 11.5 million hectares and yield at 454 kg per hectare, India remains the world’s second-largest cotton producer after China.

Overall, the USDA outlook points to a mixed global crop scenario in 2026/27: grain supplies face pressure from weather-related production losses, while oilseed output is expanding. India’s position remains relatively resilient, particularly in wheat and rice, although lower coarse grain production and steady cotton output underline the divergent crop prospects within the country.