The Union Agriculture Ministry's first advance estimates of major crops (Kharif only) for 2024-25 reveal a mixed scenario for Indian agriculture. While rice production is projected to hit a record high, pulses output is expected to fall to its lowest in nine years.
Thanks to a favourable monsoon, rice production is estimated at a record 11.99 crore tonnes, marking an increase of 66.75 lakh tonnes from the previous year's Kharif season. This surge contributes to the overall Kharif foodgrain production, which is projected at 16.47 crore tonnes—89.37 lakh tonnes higher than last year.
However, the outlook is less promising for pulses, with production estimated at just 69.54 lakh tonnes, the lowest since 2015-16. This decline highlights ongoing challenges in achieving self-sufficiency in pulses, with urad witnessing the most significant drop. India's reliance on pulse imports is expected to continue despite the government's push for self-reliance.
Maize production is expected to reach a record 245.41 lakh tonnes, up from 222.45 lakh tonnes last year, driven by a shift towards ethanol production. Due to the policy of ethanol production from maize, farmers' inclination towards maize cultivation has increased.
Shree Anna/Nutri Cereals Output Stagnant
Despite the government's efforts, the production of Shree Anna/Nutri Cereals in the Kharif season is estimated to decline slightly from last year, to 132.77 lakh tonnes. Overall, the production of coarse cereals may rise to 378.19 lakh tonnes in the Kharif season, up from 355.35 lakh tonnes last year.
Jowar output is projected to rise from 15.09 lakh tonnes to 21.96 lakh tonnes, while bajra and ragi production are set to decline. Kharif bajra production is estimated to decrease from 96.63 lakh tonnes last year to 93.75 lakh tonnes this year. Ragi production may decline to 13.90 lakh tonnes from 16.70 lakh tonnes last year.
Kharif oilseed production in 2024-25 is estimated at 257.45 lakh tonnes, an increase of 15.83 lakh tonnes. Kharif groundnut and soybean production are projected at 103.60 lakh tonnes and 133.60 lakh tonnes, respectively.
Challenges in Cash Crops
Sugarcane production in 2024-25 is estimated at 43.99 crore tonnes, the lowest in three years, due to various diseases and late monsoon rains affecting the crop.
A significant decline is expected in cotton production, with output dropping below 300 lakh bales for the first time in six years, largely due to pink bollworm infestations and crop area decrease. Cotton production is estimated at 299.26 lakh bales (170 kg each). The production of jute and mesta is estimated at 84.56 lakh bales (180 kg each).
Digital Crop Survey
For the first time, crop area estimates were prepared using Digital Crop Survey (DCS) data under the Digital Agriculture Mission. Conducted in collaboration with state governments, the survey will replace the manual girdawari system. DCS-based crop area estimation has been implemented in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha, covering all districts during the Kharif 2024 season.
