India’s sugar exports are significantly trailing the government-approved quota for the 2025-26 sugar season (October-September), with only 3,15,517 tonnes shipped by the end of February 2026 against the permitted 20 lakh tonnes.
Interestingly, the sugar industry itself had urged the government to allow exports of 20 lakh tonnes during the season. However, the pace of shipments has remained slow mainly because global sugar prices are currently lower than Indian export prices, making exports less competitive.
In November 2025, the Government of India approved the export of 15 lakh tonnes of sugar for the 2025-26 season, allocating mill-wise quotas and issuing operational guidelines to ensure smooth shipments. Later, in February 2026, the government allowed an additional 5 lakh tonnes, raising the total permitted export quantity to 20 lakh tonnes. In comparison, the export quota for the 2024-25 season was 10 lakh tonnes.
According to data from the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA), exports until February 28, 2026, show that white sugar shipments stood at 2,57,971 tonnes, while refined sugar exports reached 53,664 tonnes and raw sugar exports totalled 1,620 tonnes. In addition, about 2,322 tonnes of sugar is currently under loading or awaiting shipment.
Export destinations indicate that a large share of India’s sugar shipments this season has gone to West Asia and neighbouring regions. The United Arab Emirates accounted for 25.4% of total exports, followed by Afghanistan at 22.9%. Other key destinations include Djibouti (14.6%), Tanzania (6.8%), and Sri Lanka (6.5%).
Sugar production outlook weakens
Meanwhile, India’s sugar production is also expected to fall well below earlier industry projections for the 2025-26 crushing season due to lower cane productivity in Uttar Pradesh and early flowering of cane in Maharashtra.
Industry estimates now peg total sugar production at around 290 lakh tonnes, about 26 lakh tonnes lower than earlier projections. At the beginning of the season, the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) had projected gross production at 349 lakh tonnes, with 34 lakh tonnes expected to be diverted for ethanol production, resulting in a net sugar output of around 316 lakh tonnes.
However, recent reports from the country’s major sugar-producing states indicate that production may fall short of those expectations. Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest sugar-producing state, is likely to see the sharpest shortfall. Sugar output in the state is now estimated at around 95 lakh tonnes, slightly higher than last year’s 92.7 lakh tonnes, but significantly below the initial industry estimate of 110 lakh tonnes.