Private weather agency Skymet Weather has forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon this year. Monsoon rainfall is expected to be 103% (with an error margin of ±5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four-month period (June to September). The ‘normal’ range is defined as 96–104% of the LPA. Rainfall in the window of 4% of the long-time average is considered ‘normal’.
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, states, “La Nina this season was weak and brief, too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino, which normally disrupts the Monsoon, is ruled out. A ‘neutral’ El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian Summer Monsoon."
He added, "The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome. Preliminary Forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better Monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy Monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the first Phase.”
Besides ENSO, other factors also influence the monsoon. The IOD is currently neutral but is likely to turn positive before the onset of the monsoon. ENSO and IOD are expected to remain in sync and are likely to steer the monsoon within safe margins.
Skymet also noted the monsoon may have a quiet start on account of a quick transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral and gain enough pace halfway through the season.
Geographically, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains over Western and South India. The Core Monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, more so, over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa. The Northeast region and hilly states of North India are likely to observe less than normal rainfall during the season.
Monsoon probabilities
● 30% chance of Above Normal ( Seasonal rainfall that is between 105% to 110% of LPA)
● 40% chance of Normal ( Seasonal rainfall that is between 96% to 104% of LPA)
● 15% chance of Below Normal ( Seasonal rainfall that is between 90% to 95% of LPA)
● 5% chance of Drought ( Seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its first official forecast for this monsoon season in the coming days. A normal monsoon is critical for India’s agricultural economy, with over 50% of farmland rain-fed and nearly half the population relying on farming for livelihood. The core monsoon months—July and August—are expected to receive adequate rainfall, aiding crucial kharif crop sowing.
