India Set to Receive Above-Normal Monsoon Rains in 2025, Boosting Hopes for Agriculture and Economy
According to IMD, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average).
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal monsoon rains for the second consecutive year in 2025, bringing cheer to millions of farmers and bolstering expectations for robust agricultural and economic growth.
According to IMD, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm. Rainfall exceeding 104% of the LPA is categorized as “above normal.”
This monsoon forecast is crucial, as nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall comes from the southwest monsoon, which is vital for irrigating crops, replenishing reservoirs, and recharging groundwater. With about half of India’s farmland lacking assured irrigation, the monsoon remains a lifeline for the cultivation of key kharif crops such as rice, pulses, cotton, and coarse cereals.
Favourable Climate Conditions
The forecast is underpinned by prevailing neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. Though atmospheric patterns currently resemble La Nina, climate models suggest that neutral ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to persist during the core monsoon months.
IMD also observed below-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia from January to March 2025. This is considered a favourable sign, as reduced snow cover tends to support stronger monsoon rainfall in India.
Regional Outlook
While most parts of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, IMD has flagged below-normal rains in some regions, particularly in northwest India, the northeast, and southern peninsular states.
Skymet’s Forecast
Echoing IMD’s outlook, private forecaster Skymet Weather has predicted a “normal” monsoon with rainfall reaching up to 103% of the LPA. It expects good rainfall in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, and Goa, while cautioning that northeastern and Himalayan regions may face shortfalls.
