Sugar output in India is set to fall well below the initial sugar industry projections for the 2025–26 crushing season, as declining cane productivity in Uttar Pradesh and early flowering in Maharashtra weigh on production.
Accoring to sources industry estimates now peg total sugar production at around 29 million tonnes — nearly 2.6 million tonnes lower than initial expectations. At the start of the season, the sugar industry organisation's Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) had projected gross output at 34.9 million tonnes, with 3.4 million tonnes earmarked for diversion toward ethanol, resulting in an anticipated net sugar production of 31.6 million tonnes. However, fresh reports from the country’s two largest sugar-producing states suggest output will fall short of those projections.
Uttar Pradesh is expected to see the steepest shortfall. Sugar production in the state is now likely to reach only about 9.5 million tonnes this season — marginally higher than last year’s 9..27 million tonnes but significantly below the initial industry estimate of 11 million tonnes.
A senior official from a leading sugar mill group in the state told RuralVoice that sugarcane productivity has declined by 15–20% compared to last year, which itself was a weak season. Farmers in the state have been struggling with crop diseases and stagnating yields in recent years, leading to reduced cane availability for mills.
Crushing operations are expected to end by next month, but unlike years of stronger harvests — when mills operated until May — most mills are likely to conclude crushing by March end this season due to limited cane supply.
In Maharashtra, sugar production is estimated at around 10.2 million tonnes. Although this marks an increase of roughly 1.2 million tonnes over last year’s output, it still falls short of the earlier projection of 11 million tonnes. Last year Maharashtra sugar production was 8.09 million tonnes.
Farmer leader and former Member of Parliament Raju Shetty said early flowering of sugarcane in western Maharashtra has adversely impacted yields. Industry sources also point to a significant expansion in crushing capacity across the state, which has accelerated operations.
Mechanical harvesting has further sped up the process. Nearly 25% of sugarcane harvesting in Maharashtra is expected to be carried out using machines this season, resulting in faster crushing and an earlier closure of mills — likely within the next few days.
In Karnataka, the country’s third-largest sugar-producing state, output is estimated at around 4.2 million tonnes, compared to the industry’s earlier expectation of 5 million tonnes.
All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) released sugar production for the current season on 29th January and estimated sugar production at 29.6 million tonnes.
Despite the production setback, the outlook has turned positive for the industry following a policy move by the Government of India. On February 13, the Centre approved the export of an additional 500,000 tonnes of sugar.
The announcement pushed up ex-factory sugar prices by ₹50 per quintal on February 14. In Maharashtra, prices rose to ₹3,750 per quintal, while in Uttar Pradesh they climbed to ₹3,950 per quintal.
Sugar mills say the improvement in prices could help them expedite payments to farmers, offering some relief amid a challenging production season.