Temperatures have risen rapidly across much of the country over the past two weeks, with several northern, western and central states recording above-normal readings. However, cooler night temperatures are currently preventing heat stress in the wheat crop, offering relief to farmers for the time being. Experts warn that if night temperatures begin rising sharply along with daytime heat, the crop could face damage.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), maximum temperatures in northwest India are currently 4-6°C above normal, while central India is witnessing temperatures 2-4°C higher than usual. In several states including Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, maximum temperatures have already reached 35-38°C. In the plains of north and eastern India, temperatures have climbed to 30-34°C.
Dr. Gyanendra Singh, former director of the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR) in Karnal, Haryana, told Rural Voice that although daytime temperatures are touching 34-35°C, night temperatures remain below 15°C. As a result, the wheat crop is not yet experiencing heat stress. In the 2025-26 rabi season, wheat has been sown over a record 33.41 million hectares across the country.
At present, wheat ears (wheat heads) are in the milky stage, which will gradually harden as the grains develop. Even in early varieties, only about 5-7 percent of the crop has reached the grain-formation stage. According to Dr. Singh, the next 10 to 15 days will be crucial for the crop. If temperatures rise sharply during this period, the grains may shrink, affecting yields.
A similar situation occurred in 2022 when a sudden rise in temperatures damaged the wheat crop. Grain shrinkage led to yield losses up to 20 percent in several regions.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s Annual Report (2024-25), India’s wheat production was 107.74 million tonnes in 2021-22, compared with 109.59 million tonnes in 2020-21. Production increased to 110.55 million tonnes in 2022-23 and 113.29 million tonnes in 2023-24, reaching a record 117.49 million tonnes in 2024-25.
Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast a weak western disturbance over the western Himalayan region between March 7 and 10. This system may bring light rainfall and snowfall in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, which could provide some relief from the rising temperatures.
Given the warming conditions, Dr. Singh has advised farmers to irrigate their fields carefully. However, he cautioned that irrigation should be done after checking wind direction and speed. If wind speeds are high, irrigation should be avoided as it may cause the crop to lodge. According to the IMD, wind speed at Safdarjung in Delhi was recorded at 14.8 km per hour at 11:30 am on Thursday. It was slightly more than 11 kmph on Friday morning.