Sugar production in 2022-23 may fall to around 355 lt: ISMA

After accounting for the reduction of 45 lakh tonnes (lt) in sugar production due to the diversion of cane juice and B-molasses to ethanol, sugar production in 2022-23 may fall to around 355 lt. This is what the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has said in its preliminary estimates for 2022-23 sugar season (SS), which runs from October to September. The estimates were stated in a July 22 press release.

In 2021-22, up to 15 July 2022, the sugar production after diversion has been 360 lt. The net sugar production before considering diversion towards ethanol is estimated to be higher in 2022-23 at 399.97 lt, against 394 lt estimated for 2021-22. However, in 2022-23, sugar diversion towards the production of ethanol is estimated to be higher — 45 lt against 34.02 lt for 2021-22.

Based on the satellite images procured in the latter part of June 2022, the total acreage under sugarcane in the country is estimated to be around 58.28 lakh hectares in 2022-23 SS, which is about 4 per cent higher than the 2021-22 SS cane area of around 55.83 lakh ha.

The estimated sugar production before diversion is likely to go up to 120.49 lt in Uttar Pradesh in 2022-23 SS as against 114.98 lt in 2021-22 SS. In Maharashtra, it is expected to remain in the same range — marginally up from 148.65 lt to 148.90 lt. In Karnataka, it is expected to be 65.90 lt in 2022-23 SS while it has been 66.22 lt up to 15 July 2022 (the special season is still in progress here).

ISMA estimates the nationwide consumption would be around 275 lt in 2022-23, therefore keeping a surplus of about 80 lt, which needs to be exported.

The production estimates have been made assuming normal rainfall and other optimum conditions during the remaining period.

In 2021-22, till 10 July 2022, the total contracted quantity of ethanol is 444.42 crore litres. Out of this, 362.16 crore litres is from the sugar industry. Ethanol manufactured from sugarcane juice and B-Heavy molasses (BHM) stands at 349.49 crore litres (79.33 crore litres from sugarcane juice and 270.16 crore litres from BHM), which translates into the diversion of about 34 lt of sugar into ethanol, as previously estimated by ISMA.

During the next year 2022-23, since the target of 12 per cent blending is expected to be achieved, a total of about 545 crore litres of ethanol would be required and supplied. This would lead to the higher diversion of about 45 lt of sugar into ethanol and the subsequent slight fall in sugar production after ethanol diversion.