A new El Niño phase is expected to develop within weeks, raising concerns about widespread drought impacts on agriculture across several regions of the world. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has released a detailed analysis identifying areas where crops and pasturelands are most vulnerable to El Niño-induced drought conditions.
Drawing on 41 years of historical satellite data from its Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS), FAO has mapped regions that have historically experienced severe agricultural drought during strong and very strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The analysis comes as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a stronger-than-usual El Niño cycle.
According to FAO, the highest risks are concentrated in the Sahel region of Africa, Southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Central America's Dry Corridor and the Caribbean. In some of these areas, agricultural and grazing lands face more than a 50 percent probability of drought in the coming months.
The warning is particularly significant because many of these regions were severely affected during the El Niño episodes of 2015-16 and 2023-24. El Niño-related droughts have historically led to crop failures, livestock losses, rising household debt, and increased migration as communities struggle to secure food and water.
During the 2015-16 El Niño event alone, more than 60 million people were affected worldwide, prompting humanitarian appeals worth approximately $5 billion across 23 countries.
Climate Change Amplifying Risks
FAO experts caution that the current El Niño could have more severe consequences than previous events due to rising global temperatures and ongoing humanitarian crises.
“This isn't like previous El Niños. The planet is much warmer today, and with conflict and food insecurity widespread, this new phase will hit hardest in places that are already vulnerable and have limited coping capacity,” said Jorge Alvar-Beltrán, Natural Resources Officer at FAO.
The agency noted that more than 80 percent of drought-related agricultural losses are expected to occur in low- and middle-income countries, where communities often depend heavily on rain-fed farming and livestock for their livelihoods.
Africa Faces Significant Threat
In the Sahel, where food insecurity has worsened over the past five years and conflicts continue to displace communities, FAO's analysis indicates a broad belt of agricultural drought risk stretching from Senegal and southern Mauritania through Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria, extending eastward into Ethiopia and Sudan.
Southern Africa remains one of the most vulnerable regions. The previous El Niño cycle triggered the region's worst drought in more than a century, leaving around 61 million people in need of assistance and pushing over 8 million people into food insecurity.
FAO forecasts a greater than 50 percent probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, with risks extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar.
Asia's Food Production at Risk
In Asia, El Niño could threaten key agricultural markets and food supplies. The phenomenon is known to weaken India's summer monsoon, placing rain-fed crops such as rice and maize under stress during critical growth stages.
FAO noted that during the 2015 El Niño event, rice and maize production declined in several major producing countries, contributing to higher food prices.
The latest analysis identifies significant drought risks stretching from Pakistan and India through Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, and further east to the Philippines, Indonesia and Timor-Leste.
Central America and Caribbean Also Vulnerable
In Central America and the Caribbean, drought risks could rapidly translate into food insecurity. The 2015-16 El Niño left approximately 3.5 million people food insecure across Central America's Dry Corridor. In Haiti, harvests fell by up to 70 percent, causing food insecurity to double within months.
Current forecasts indicate a 70 percent probability of below-normal rainfall across the region. Areas facing the highest agricultural drought risk include the Dry Corridor, Colombia, Venezuela, Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
FAO and WFP Launch Early Action Appeal
In response to the growing threat, FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) have launched a joint anticipatory action appeal seeking $202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries.
The initiative aims to fund early interventions such as support for farmers and pastoralists, anticipatory cash assistance, and strengthened early warning systems before droughts, floods and storms escalate into humanitarian emergencies.
FAO officials emphasized that timely action can significantly reduce losses. Measures such as delaying planting, adopting drought-tolerant crop varieties, storing livestock fodder and securing water reserves can help communities withstand drought conditions.
“This level of detail changes what a government can do,” said Riccardo Soldan, Natural Resources Officer at FAO. “Instead of spreading resources thinly, it can concentrate support in the hotspots, directing cash transfers, water and irrigation support, livestock feed, and other critical inputs to the places most at risk.”
FAO's high-resolution drought risk maps can identify vulnerable areas down to a single square kilometre, helping governments target resources more effectively and protect communities before losses occur.
With El Niño conditions expected to develop soon, FAO says the key challenge now is ensuring that early warnings are translated into timely action on the ground.