India’s farm exports delivered a rare patch of green in an otherwise bleak October trade print, with a clutch of agricultural commodities punching above their weight even as the broader merchandise-export engine sputtered. But behind the headline gains, analysts warn of a recovery that is narrow, uneven and heavily exposed to global price swings.
Provisional data released by the Commerce Ministry on Monday shows merchandise exports sliding 11.8% year-on-year to USD 34.38 billion in October 2025. Yet the farm and food basket, often treated as a stabiliser during volatile trade cycles, registered some of the sharpest month-on-month boosts seen this financial year.
Cashew shipments soared 126.85% to USD 61.5 million, a spike officials attribute to returning global demand and better domestic processing capacity. Exports of meat, dairy and poultry products jumped 30.87% to USD 584.5 million, buoyed by steady orders from West Asia and parts of Southeast Asia.
Marine products — India’s most valuable agri-linked export category — grew 11.08% to USD 899 million, backed by firm shrimp demand in the US and stable pricing in the EU and East Asia. Coffee exports rose 10.91% to USD 127.5 million, benefiting from stronger global prices and a recovery in premium-grade output. Other cereals, excluding rice and wheat, were up 14.71%, reflecting pockets of niche demand.
The ministry positioned these categories as “major drivers of merchandise export growth” in an otherwise weak month dominated by steep declines in engineering goods, petroleum products, chemicals and gems and jewellery — sectors that typically determine the direction of India’s trade cycle.
Strength With Caveats
A closer look at the April–October numbers offers a more complicated picture. While rice exports fell 16.5% in October, cumulative shipments for the seven-month period still managed a 5.51% rise — helped in part by delayed orders and inventory restocking in key African markets. Fruits and vegetables dipped 12.07% in October but showed a 6.20% uptick over April–October.
Marine exports grew 16.18% over the same cumulative period, and meat, dairy and poultry exports expanded nearly 24%, signalling continued global demand. Coffee and cashew posted robust April–October growth of 12.30% and 28.32% respectively, supported by buyers in the US, EU, China, Spain and Sri Lanka.
Yet these pockets of resilience do not negate the broader pressures. Exporters note that much of the October surge is concentrated in a few commodities and owes as much to global price behaviour as to policy or competitiveness. “These are welcome numbers, but they tell a story of selective resilience — not a broad-based revival,” said one senior agricultural-exporter lobby representative.
Trade Deficit Overshadows Gains
The buoyancy in farm exports did little to cushion the wider trade imbalance. India’s trade deficit widened sharply to USD 21.8 billion in October, almost double the USD 9.05 billion recorded a year earlier. A steep rise in gold and electronics imports, alongside higher inflows of machinery and non-ferrous metals, pushed imports up nearly 15% to USD 94.7 billion.
For April–October 2025, merchandise exports stood at USD 254.25 billion, only a shade above last year’s USD 252.66 billion. Total exports — including services — reached USD 491.8 billion, up 4.84%, while overall imports rose 5.74% to USD 569.95 billion.
Trade economists say this widening gap underscores the structural challenge: India’s agricultural exports, however welcome, cannot compensate for the drag in high-value industrial categories. “Agriculture is doing some heavy lifting, but it’s not designed to carry the entire export economy,” a Mumbai-based economist said. “The deficit numbers reflect that imbalance starkly.”
Uncertain Road Ahead
The outlook hinges on forces outside New Delhi’s control — freight stability, sustained price competitiveness, and the progress of trade negotiations with the EU, UK, and the Gulf. Exporters also warn that volatile commodity prices and tightening sanitary-phytosanitary requirements in major markets could blunt the momentum.
For now, October’s figures offer a brief respite: evidence that parts of India’s farm economy can still hold their own amid a broader slowdown. But as the trade deficit balloons and industrial exports struggle, the data serves less as a sign of revival and more as a reminder of how fragile India’s export engine remains.