Global grain production is expected to decline in 2026-27 for the first time in four years, as reduced harvested area and weaker crop yields weigh on output, according to the latest Grain Market Report released by the International Grains Council (IGC)>
The Council said global wheat and corn production estimates remained largely unchanged from the previous month, but both crops are projected to record lower output compared to the 2025-26 season. Global wheat production is forecast to decline by 3 percent year-on-year to 820 million tonnes, while corn output is expected to fall by 2 percent to 1.3 billion tonnes.
IGC revised its global rice production estimate downward by 3 million tonnes from the previous month. Even with the revision, global rice output in 2026-27 is expected to match last year’s record level of 545 million tonnes. Global rice trade is forecast to rise sharply and could touch a record 62 million tonnes, up 4 percent from the previous year, mainly due to stronger import demand from African countries.
Despite lower production, global consumption of major grains such as wheat, maize and barley is projected to continue rising. The IGC said stronger demand across food, feed and industrial sectors is likely to push total grain consumption slightly higher in the coming season.
As a result, global ending grain stocks are expected to tighten by 4 percent. However, at 615 million tonnes, stock levels would still remain broadly in line with the five-year average.
The report also highlighted a slowdown in global grain trade. Total trade in grains is projected to decline by 2 percent, mainly due to reduced import demand from North Africa and the Near East.
In contrast to grains, soybean production is expected to rise further in 2026-27. The IGC marginally increased its soybean production forecast from the previous month and now expects global output to reach a record 442 million tonnes.
According to the Council, global soybean production could increase by 3 percent year-on-year, supported by larger harvests in major producing countries. Soybean consumption is also projected to touch a record 445 million tonnes, driven by rising demand across food, feed and processing industries.
The report noted that global soybean reserves are likely to decline modestly as higher demand supports crushing and processing activity.
The report also indicated firm trends in global agricultural commodity prices. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose 2.6 percent compared to the previous month, led by a 4.2 percent jump in wheat prices.
On a year-on-year basis, the overall index was up nearly 8 percent, with soybean prices rising 12 percent and barley prices increasing 9 percent, reflecting tightening supplies and continued strong demand in global markets.