India’s emergence as the world’s largest rice producer has sparked widespread discussion in recent weeks. Last year, India’s rice output reached 150 million tonnes, surpassing China’s 145 million tonnes. While this marks a significant milestone, experts caution that the headline figure does not present the full picture.
The key difference lies in acreage and productivity. India currently cultivates rice across about 44 million hectares, a record level. In contrast, China has strategically reduced its rice acreage by nearly 4 million hectares in recent years, bringing it down from 32 million hectares to 28 million hectares. Despite cultivating 16 million hectares less than India, China’s production trails India’s by only about 5 million tonnes.
Productivity Tells The Real Story
India’s average paddy yield stands at around 3.5 tonnes per hectare, translating to roughly 2.3 tonnes per hectare in milled rice terms. China’s average rice productivity is close to 4 tonnes per hectare. In effect, China’s productivity is nearly 70 per cent higher than India’s on a comparable basis.
Agricultural experts argue that merely becoming the largest producer is not a sufficient benchmark. Bridging the productivity gap with China may be a more meaningful and sustainable objective.
India has been attempting to rationalise rice acreage, particularly in water-stressed regions such as Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Telangana. Excessive groundwater extraction for paddy cultivation has intensified pressure on water resources in these states.
At the same time, record procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) system has led to historically high rice stocks in the central pool. The assured procurement of paddy, especially during the kharif season, incentivises farmers to continue prioritising rice over alternative crops. Other kharif crops do not enjoy comparable procurement support, thereby influencing cropping decisions.
An unintended consequence of surplus rice production has been India’s growing dependence on imports of pulses and edible oils, as acreage remains skewed towards paddy.
Export Paradox
India has retained its position as the world’s largest rice exporter for several years, shipping over 20 million tonnes annually. Much of this consists of non-basmati rice, exported at relatively lower prices.
Recent export deals with Bangladesh were reportedly concluded at around Rs 32 per kilogram. However, the economic cost of rice procured by the government during the current kharif marketing season is estimated at around Rs 40 per kilogram. Such pricing raises questions about the sustainability and rationale of exporting at rates below procurement cost.
India’s total rice exports are valued at nearly Rs 90,000 crore, with basmati rice accounting for about Rs 50,000 crore. Of the 20 million tonnes exported, approximately 6 million tonnes are basmati and 14 million tonnes are non-basmati varieties.
Shift Towards High-Value Varieties
According to Dr Ashok Kumar Singh, former Director of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, (IARI) Pusa, India needs to recalibrate its rice strategy. Greater emphasis should be placed on high-quality rice, particularly basmati and other aromatic non-basmati varieties, which fetch better returns in international markets.
There is substantial scope to expand basmati cultivation, especially in Geographical Indication-designated states. In Punjab, rice is cultivated over about 3 million hectares, but basmati accounts for only around 0.6 million hectares. Haryana has about 1.4 million hectares under rice, with roughly 0.6 million hectares devoted to basmati. Experts believe basmati acreage can be expanded further in Punjab, enhancing farmers’ incomes while reducing the area under non-basmati paddy and promoting crop diversification.
Rethinking The Growth Model
Several experts suggest that instead of celebrating production rankings alone, India should prioritise increasing average productivity and reducing overall paddy acreage. Raising yields while diversifying cropping patterns could help conserve water, balance imports of other food commodities and improve farm profitability.
India’s status as the largest rice producer is undoubtedly a landmark achievement. However, the deeper challenge lies in improving efficiency, ensuring better price realisation and aligning production with long-term sustainability goals.