New Delhi
The global population is projected to reach 8bn on 15 November 2022, signalling major improvements in public health that have lowered the risk of dying and increased life expectancy. But the moment is also a clarion call for humanity to look beyond the numbers and meet its shared responsibility to protect people and the planet, starting with the most vulnerable. This was stated in a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) press release.
“Unless we bridge the yawning chasm between the global haves and have-nots, we are setting ourselves up for an 8bn-strong world filled with tensions and mistrust, crisis and conflict,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
India’s population growth stabilizing
The good news is that India’s population growth appears to be stabilizing, says the release. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) — more or less the average number of children born per woman — has declined from 2.2 to 2.0 at the national level. A total of 31 States and Union Territories (constituting 69.7 per cent of the country’s population) have achieved fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1.
According to the release, the main reasons for the decline in fertility include: Increase in the adoption of modern family planning methods (from 47.8 per cent in 2015-16 to 56.5 per cent in 2019-21) and a reduction in unmet need for family planning by 4 percentage points over the same period. This indicates significant improvements in access to family-planning-related information and services. In summary, it shows that India’s national population policies and health systems are working.
India is a youthful nation with the largest cohort of young people anywhere in the world, with major potential to achieve its demographic dividend, says the release. While many parts of the world are ageing, India’s youthful population can be a global resource to solve global problems.
Global facts and figures
According to the release, it took about 12 years for the world population to grow from 7 to 8bn, but the next billion is expected to take approximately 14.5 years (2037), reflecting the slowdown in global growth. The world population is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4bn people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100.
For the increase from 7 to 8bn, around 70 per cent of the added population was in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. For the increase from 8 to 9bn, these two groups of countries are expected to account for more than 90 per cent of global growth.
Between now and 2050, the global increase in the population under age 65 will occur entirely in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, since population growth in high-income and upper-middle-income countries will occur only among those aged 65 years or over.
More demographically diverse world than ever before
While the world’s population will continue to grow to around 10.4bn in the 2080s, the overall rate of growth is slowing down. The world is more demographically diverse than ever before, with countries facing starkly different population trends ranging from growth to decline. Today, two-thirds of the global population lives in a low fertility context, where the lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman. At the same time, population growth has become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.
Shombi Sharp, UN Resident Coordinator in India, said, “Today marks a historic moment for all of humanity. A world of 8bn minds represents infinite possibilities for change. We must focus on investing in each person to achieve a quality of life that allows them to thrive equally and with dignity in our modern world, building inclusive societies and sustainable economies in the face of overlapping crises. And India, coupling efforts to drive gender equality with the greatest youth generation in history, supported by world-class innovation in digital public goods, is positioned to help the world achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) more than any other.”
Andrea Wojnar, UNFPA Representative India and Country Director Bhutan, said, “The reproductive health and rights of women and girls are key to ensuring societies thrive amid demographic changes.” She added, “Issues like climate change and access to health care disproportionately impact the most vulnerable, especially women and girls. This day should incite the global community to commit to cultivating a world in which all 8bn of us can thrive equally.”
Need for sustainable future built on rights and choices
The release says that in order to usher in a world in which all 8bn people can thrive, we must look to proven and effective solutions to mitigate our world’s challenges and achieve the SDGs while prioritizing human rights. In order to pursue these solutions, increased investment from member states and donor governments is needed in policies and programmes that work to make the world safer, more sustainable and more inclusive.