Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns across the global dairy industry, with analysts warning that billions of dollars in dairy trade could be at risk if the critical maritime corridor becomes restricted.
The narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to international shipping lanes serves as the primary gateway for cargo entering several Gulf economies. A report by Dairy News today says, while Iran itself is not a major importer of European dairy products, the location of the strait makes it a vital route for dairy shipments destined for the wider Gulf region.
The Middle East remains one of the most import-dependent dairy markets in the world. In 2024, countries across the region imported approximately 1.3 million tonnes of dairy products valued at about $4.2 billion, highlighting the scale of dependence on global dairy suppliers.
Among the region’s largest dairy importers, Saudi Arabia leads with annual imports worth around $2.1 billion. The United Arab Emirates follows with approximately $1.5 billion in dairy imports each year. Iraq accounts for roughly $763 million in imports, while Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar together represent hundreds of millions of dollars more in annual dairy purchases.
Within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), dairy imports reached around $2.7 billion in 2024 alone. The UAE accounted for about 43% of the total import volume, underscoring its position as one of the region’s largest dairy markets.
The UAE is particularly reliant on international dairy supply chains. On average, the country imports about $170 worth of dairy products per capita annually, making it one of the most import-dependent dairy markets globally.
Industry experts say any disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would significantly impact maritime deliveries to countries including Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and eastern parts of Saudi Arabia.
These markets rely heavily on imported dairy ingredients, particularly whole milk powder, cheese, and evaporated and condensed milk. Together, these three product categories account for roughly 68% of the Middle East’s total dairy imports. Because these products represent some of the most widely traded dairy commodities worldwide, supply disruptions could ripple across global dairy markets.
Several major dairy-exporting regions are especially exposed to potential shipping disruptions in the Gulf. Key suppliers include the European Union, New Zealand and the United States, which collectively supply large volumes of cheese, milk powder, butter and evaporated milk to Gulf markets.
The UAE alone imports as much as 200,000 tonnes of whole milk powder annually, highlighting the scale of demand in the region. Cheese is another major import product, accounting for about 28% of the UAE’s dairy import value.
These volumes make the Gulf region a strategically important destination for global dairy exporters seeking stable markets for both commodity ingredients and value-added dairy products.
The situation is further complicated by growing instability around another critical shipping corridor- the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
If both Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes become unstable simultaneously, global exporters could face severe logistical challenges. Ships carrying refrigerated dairy cargo may be forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.
Such detours would significantly increase transit times and freight costs, particularly for temperature-sensitive dairy products that rely on efficient cold-chain logistics.
The Middle East remains one of the fastest-growing dairy markets globally due to rapid population growth, urbanization and limited domestic milk production capacity. For international dairy exporters, the region serves not only as a key consumption market but also as an essential outlet for surplus dairy ingredients produced in major exporting economies.
Analysts warn that any prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could reshape global dairy trade flows. Exporters may be forced to redirect shipments to alternative markets, potentially creating supply imbalances and increasing price volatility across international dairy markets.
As geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, the stability of critical maritime routes in the Middle East will remain a key factor influencing the future of global dairy trade.