Global weather experts are raising fresh concerns that the world may witness not just a typical El Niño, but a far more intense “Super El Niño,” potentially triggering extreme climate events across the world. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already projected a below-normal monsoon at 92% of the long-period average this year, attributing the outlook to developing El Niño conditions after June. However, evolving global forecasts suggest a stronger phenomenon could be in the making. Current estimates place the probability of El Niño at 62%, while the chances of a Super El Niño stand at 25%.
If such a scenario unfolds, it could lead to record-breaking heat globally, alongside stark contrasts in weather patterns - intense rainfall in some regions and severe drought in others.
Scientists closely tracking Pacific Ocean conditions indicate that the risk of a stronger-than-usual El Niño is rising. Dr. Paul Roundy of the State University of New York has warned that one of the most powerful El Niño events in 140 years could develop. Supporting this concern, World Meteorological Organization chief Celeste Saulo noted that the 2023-24 El Niño was already among the five strongest on record and played a key role in pushing global temperatures to historic highs in 2024.
According to the US Climate Prediction Center, climate conditions are currently transitioning from La Niña to a neutral phase. However, model projections suggest El Niño could form during the summer and persist through the end of the year, amplifying its potential impacts.
El Niño is driven by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Along with La Niña and neutral conditions, it forms part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which recurs every three to seven years and significantly influences global climate patterns.
Even a modest rise of 0.5°C in ocean temperatures can disrupt weather systems, but during stronger events, temperature deviations can reach up to 2°C or more. This disrupts wind patterns and ocean currents, alters jet streams, and reshapes rainfall distribution worldwide.
Historically, El Niño events have been linked to heatwaves and droughts in regions such as India, Australia, and parts of Africa and South America. Conversely, areas like the southern United States and parts of Asia may experience excessive rainfall and flooding.
A Super El Niño, defined by ocean warming exceeding 2°C, is far rarer but significantly more disruptive. The last such event in 2015 caused widespread climatic damage, including drought in Ethiopia and water shortages in Puerto Rico, along with an unusually active hurricane season in the Pacific.
Experts caution that while early indicators point toward a stronger event, forecasts made during the spring season often carry uncertainty due to rapidly changing ocean-atmosphere interactions. Nevertheless, emerging signals suggest that the world should prepare for the possibility of a high-impact climate event in the coming months.