IMD forecast of normal rains in Jan-Feb-Mar raises hopes for better wheat crop during rabi
IMD's forecast of normal rainfall during the January-February-March period has raised expectations for a better wheat crop during the rabi season.
Subhashis Mittra
IMD's forecast of normal rainfall during the January-February-March period has raised expectations for a better wheat crop during the rabi season.
Wheat is the main rabi (winter) crop, sowing of which normally begins in November and harvesting is done from March-April.
India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutynjay Mohapatra's forecast, however, comes against the backdrop of less rains this monsoon in wheat-growing northwest India.
In a similar refrain, Agriculture Commissioner PK Singh said the last leg of wheat sowing, which is underway and will continue for the next ten days, would make up for the lag in the crop coverage so far in the 2023-24 rabi season.
Rainfall was 65 per cent deficit than the normal rains of 18.9 mm.
As per agriculture ministry data, till the last week of the ongoing rabi (winter) season, wheat was sown in 320.54 lakh hectares against 324.58 lakh hectares in the year-ago period.
According to the data, the area sown to wheat in Uttar Pradesh has increased to 9.44 million hectares till December 22 of the 2023-24 rabi season, from 9.29 million hectares in the year-ago period.
However, the wheat area sown in Madhya Pradesh was slightly lower at 8.17 million hectares, as against 8.39 million hectares in the said period.
In the case of Punjab and Haryana, the wheat sown area was almost at last year's level of 3.49 million hectares and 2.31 million hectares, respectively till December 22 of this rabi season.
After facing loss due to terminal heatwave last year, more farmers are cultivating climate-resilient wheat varieties which have been sown in more than 60 per cent of the planted area.
This is because there was a delay in wheat sowing in some parts where paddy harvesting got late.
Keeping in mind the terminal heat problem that wheat farmers faced last year, the government this year has promoted climate-resilient wheat varieties and kept a target to cover 60 per cent of the total cropped area.
"We have exceeded the target as heat-resistance varieties have been sown in more than 60 per cent of the cropped area so far. Last year, these varieties were sown only in 45 per cent of the area," an official said. This should help farmers face the terminal heat problem if it occurs again in March-Apr 2024.
It is pertinent to note that a scorching heatwave in March 2022 had reduced wheat yield in the north and central Indian states. To prepare farmers to deal with heatwaves in advance, the Agriculture Commissioner said the government has started issuing weekly scientific advisories educating them on how to take care of the crop at different growth stages and weather conditions.
Mohapatra said 2023 was the second warmest year since 1901 as the annual mean air temperature for the country was 0.65 degrees Celsius above normal. The warmest year since 1901 was 2016 when the annual mean air temperature for the country was 0.710 degrees Celsius above normal.
The weather office also said that cold day to severe cold day conditions were likely to continue over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan during the next few days and decrease thereafter.
Mohapatra said the country as a whole, at 25.5 mm, received 60 per cent excess rains in December against the normal of 15.9 mm for the month.
South peninsular regions received 72.2 mm of rainfall in December, which was 126 per cent excess than the normal 32 mm for the month. The rainfall was 191 per cent more in Central India, which received 14.8 mm of rain against the normal of 5.1 mm for December.
As per the IMD's long-term forecast, the temperature will be conducive to normal growth of the wheat crop. Due to the adoption of new wheat varieties, the productivity is expected to be higher.
Currently, the wheat crop is in the germination and tillering stage. The crop prospects are seen to be good under the present cool temperature. The government has fixed a minimum support price (MSP) of wheat higher by Rs 150 at Rs 2,275 per quintal for the 2024-25 marketing year (Apr-Mar).
