Global grains production is projected to reach a record high in the 2025/26 marketing season, driven by higher output of maize and wheat, while consumption is also set to rise, according to the latest outlook released by the International Grains Council.
The forecast for total grains production, including wheat and coarse grains, has been revised upward by 10 million tonnes month-on-month to 2,470 million tonnes. The increase is largely attributed to improved maize output, including in India, and higher wheat production in key exporters such as Russia and Australia.
Despite the larger supply, most of the increase is expected to be absorbed by higher consumption, which has been raised by 8 million tonnes to 2,423 million tonnes. Global stocks are also projected to increase, with end-season inventories estimated at 632 million tonnes.
At this level, global grains production in 2025-26 would be 143 million tonnes higher year-on-year, supported by strong gains in maize production (+79 million tonnes), wheat (+44 million tonnes) and barley (+11 million tonnes). Consumption is also forecast to reach a new peak, rising by 73 million tonnes, while the increase in supply is expected to allow some rebuilding of stocks to a six-year high. Global grains trade is projected to expand by 25 million tonnes year-on-year to 632 million tonnes, led by increased flows of wheat and maize.
However, the outlook for 2026-27 points to a potential moderation. Global grains output is projected to decline by 2% due to reduced harvested area and lower yields. Total production is estimated at 2,417 million tonnes, about 53 million tonnes below the previous season’s record. While opening stocks will provide some cushion, overall supply is expected to decline slightly year-on-year, marking the first contraction in four seasons.
Consumption, however, is expected to continue its upward trajectory for a fourth consecutive year, reaching a new record of 2,440 million tonnes, driven by rising demand for food and industrial uses. As a result, global stocks are projected to tighten to 609 million tonnes, down by 23 million tonnes, with most of the decline concentrated among major exporting countries. Trade volumes are expected to remain broadly stable.
In the oilseeds segment, global soyabean production for 2025-26 has been revised downward by 2 million tonnes month-on-month to 426 million tonnes, reflecting lower output in Brazil and India. This has led to minor downward adjustments in consumption and stock estimates.
Looking ahead to 2026-27, global soyabean production is expected to reach a record 442 million tonnes, supported by increased acreage in major exporting countries. Strong availability is likely to push processing to a new high, while global stocks are projected to remain broadly stable. Trade volumes are forecast to grow by 2% to 190 million tonnes, driven by shipments from South America to Asia.
Global rice markets are expected to remain stable in 2025-26, with only minor changes to supply and demand projections. Trade is forecast to reach a record 59.5 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year. For 2026-27, global rice production is projected to hit a new peak, supported by modest increases in acreage and yields.
Consumption and trade are also expected to rise to fresh highs, underpinned by population growth in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Global rice stocks are projected to expand, largely due to accumulation in India. Trade volumes in 2026-27 are expected to increase further to 60.9 million tonnes.
In the pulses segment, global broad beans production is expected to decline slightly in 2026-27 after reaching a record in the previous season. However, increasing demand, particularly in North Africa, is likely to tighten inventories. Trade is projected at around 1.3 million tonnes in 2027, remaining broadly stable year-on-year but above average levels, supported by demand from North Africa, Europe and the Near East.