Exit Polls: Congress Set to Form Government in Haryana After 10 Years, Cong-NC may lead in J&K

After Saturday's polling, various exit polls indicate a clear majority for the Congress party in Haryana, with projections ranging from 54 to 62 seats. In the 90-seat assembly, 46 seats are required for a majority. The vote counting will take place on October 8. A total of 1,031 candidates are in the fray, including 101 women and 464 independents.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is projected to win a majority. Various exit polls suggest that the alliance could secure between 31 and 48 seats out of the total 90. The BJP-led NDA is expected to win between 20 and 32 seats. Here also 46 seats are needed to get the majority.

According to Dhruv Research, Congress is projected to win between 50 and 64 seats out of the 90 in Haryana, while the BJP may secure 27 seats. People's Pulse suggests Congress could get between 49 and 61 seats, the BJP 20 to 32, INLD-BSP 2 to 3, and others 3 to 5 seats. Times of India estimates Congress will win 55 to 62 seats, BJP 18 to 24, INLD 3 to 6, JJP 0 to 3, and others 2 to 5 seats.

Republic-Matrize forecasts Congress getting 55 to 62 seats, BJP 18 to 24, and others 3 to 6 seats. Dataansh and The Red Mike suggest Congress may win 50 to 55 seats, BJP 20 to 25, INLD 3 to 5, and others 3 to 5 seats. CNN 24 predicts 59 seats for Congress, 21 for BJP, and 10 for others. India Today-My Axis projects 59 seats for Congress, 21 for BJP, and 2 to 6 for others. News-18 indicates that Congress is likely to win 59 seats, BJP 21, INLD 4, and JJP 2 seats in Haryana.

Past Exit Polls in Haryana

In Haryana's 2014 assembly elections, voting took place on October 15, with results announced four days later. That election witnessed a record voter turnout of 76.54%, with the BJP winning 47 seats. Most exit polls that year correctly predicted a clear victory for the BJP. Pollsters like India TV-C Voter, ABP News-Nielsen, Times Now, and News 24-Chanakya estimated that the BJP would secure between 37 and 52 seats.

However, in the 2019 Haryana elections, the exit polls proved less accurate. The BJP won 40 seats, seven fewer than in 2014. Exit poll predictions had estimated between 51 and 78 seats for the party, with ABP News-C Voter predicting as many as 78 seats. Despite falling short of the majority mark of 46 seats, the BJP formed a government through an alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and with the support of seven independent MLAs. Manohar Lal Khattar was reappointed as Chief Minister, while Dushyant Chautala of the JJP became Deputy Chief Minister.

Past Exit Polls in Jammu and Kashmir

In Jammu and Kashmir, assembly elections were held this time after nearly a decade. The voting took place in three phases between September 18 and October 1, 2024, with a total voter turnout of 63.45%.

During the 2014 assembly elections, several exit polls, including C-Voter, predicted that the BJP would win between 27 and 33 seats, the Congress would get 4 to 10 seats, the National Conference (NC) would secure 8 to 14 seats, and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) would win between 32 and 38 seats. Ultimately, the PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats. The BJP came in second with 25 seats, the National Conference third with 15 seats, and the Congress fourth with 12 seats.