USDA estimates record rice production in India, while cotton area dropped

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts India’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 rice production at record 139.0 million metric tons, up marginally from last month and 1 percent higher than last year, due to an increase in planted area. The harvested area is forecast to reach a record 48.5 million hectares (mha), up 1 percent from the previous month and nearly 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 4.30 tons per hectare, down slightly from both last month and last year.

The Crop Situation Report, published by India’s Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare on August 30, 2024, reported sown area at 40.8 mha, up nearly 4 percent from last year, as some farmers switched from cotton to rice.

According to the report, farmers were drawn to planting rice due to its potential for higher yields and lower input costs relative to cotton. Furthermore, improved rainfall in key producing areas encouraged an above-average pace of planting.

India Cotton: Harvested Area Drops 7 Percent from Last Year

The USDA estimates India’s MY 2024/25 cotton production at 24.0 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from last month and 7 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 11.8 million hectares (mha), down 2 percent from last month and 7 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 443 kilograms per hectare, slightly down from last month but marginally up from last year.

The drop in harvested area is primarily due to farmers switching to more profitable crops and excessive heat in the northern cotton areas. Planting has decreased in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Telangana, where farmers have switched to rice, soybeans, and peanuts.

At the beginning of the season, northern cotton areas, which comprise around 15 percent of total production, experienced pre-monsoonal heat as high as 47 degrees Celsius, hindering sowing.

Consequently, planting is estimated to be down as much as 35 percent in the north. The Crop Situation Report, published by India’s Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare on August 30, 2024, reported the sown area at 11.2 mha, down 9 percent from the same period last year.