IMD Forecast: Widespread Rain Ahead, But Seasonal Rainfall Deficit Stands at 13 Percent

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall across several parts of India over the next few days, with isolated heavy to very heavy showers likely in northwest and central regions. However, the country’s seasonal cumulative rainfall remained 13 percent below the long-period average (LPA) as of September 4, highlighting a continuing rainfall deficit despite the expected improvement in rain activity.

The IMD said a low-pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh is likely to move east-northeastwards during the next two days. The system is expected to enhance rainfall over parts of northwest, central and eastern India.

Rain Forecast for Northwest India

Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi are likely to receive fairly widespread rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, on September 5. East Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh are expected to experience similar conditions on September 5-6, while East Uttar Pradesh may receive widespread rainfall from September 6 to 8.

Heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand during September 5-7 and September 10-11. Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and West Uttar Pradesh may also receive isolated heavy rain on September 5-6. East Rajasthan could experience very heavy rainfall on September 5.

Central and Eastern Regions

West Madhya Pradesh is likely to witness widespread rainfall on September 5-6, while East Madhya Pradesh may receive widespread rain through September 8. Heavy rainfall is expected at isolated locations in West Madhya Pradesh on September 6-7 and East Madhya Pradesh during September 5-8.

Bihar is forecast to receive widespread rainfall during September 5-7, with isolated very heavy rain on September 5. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim may see heavy rain during September 5-7, while Odisha is likely to receive heavy rainfall between September 9 and 11.

Northeast, West and South India

Rainfall is likely to remain active across the Northeast during September 5-11, particularly over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya. Konkan and Goa may receive widespread rainfall through September 9.

In contrast, rainfall activity is expected to remain relatively subdued over Peninsular India during the next six to seven days. Most southern states are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall, although Tamil Nadu and Kerala could experience isolated heavy rain on September 5.

Delhi-NCR Forecast

Delhi-NCR is likely to remain generally cloudy on September 5, with light to moderate rain at most places, thunderstorms and lightning, and one or two spells of heavy rain at isolated locations. The maximum temperature is expected to remain around 29-31°C.

On September 6, very light to light rain may occur at many places, particularly during the afternoon and evening, while the maximum temperature could rise to 31-33°C. By September 7-8, conditions are expected to become partly cloudy, with temperatures reaching around 33-35°C.

Regional Rainfall Deficit Persists

Despite the forecast of renewed rainfall, cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon season remains below normal. As of September 4, South Peninsular India had received 426.7 mm rainfall, 26 percent below its LPA. East and Northeast India was 24 percent below normal, Northwest India 9 percent below and Central India 5 percent below its respective averages.

The state-wise picture remains uneven. Punjab has received 237.9 mm rainfall against its normal 378.6 mm, registering a 37 percent deficit. Haryana, Rajasthan, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar have recorded deficits ranging from 21 to 44 percent.

The Northeast has also faced significant shortfalls. Meghalaya is 58 percent below normal, followed by Manipur at 41 percent, Arunachal Pradesh at 40 percent and Assam at 23 percent.

The coming spell of rainfall could therefore provide some relief to deficit regions, but its intensity and geographical spread will be crucial in determining whether the seasonal gap narrows significantly before the monsoon begins its withdrawal.