Global Grain Output to Rise for Third Straight Year: IGC

Global grain production is set to rise for the third consecutive year, reaching an estimated 2.377 billion tonnes in the 2025-26 season, according to the June Grain Market Report released by the International Grains Council (IGC). This marks a month-on-month increase of 2 million tonnes.

Grain production is projected to grow by 3% in 2025-26, with the largest gains expected in maize (corn). For the 2024-25 season, the IGC also raised its production estimate by 3 million tonnes, now pegged at 2.313 billion tonnes, largely due to an upward revision in maize output.

However, despite the improved production outlook, global supply is expected to tighten. “The increased outturn does not compensate for tighter opening stocks,” the IGC noted. As a result, global grain carryover stocks are forecast to decline by 4%, reaching their lowest level in a decade.

For the end of the 2025-26 season, grain stocks are projected to edge up slightly to 586 million tonnes, supported by a buildup in U.S. maize reserves.

Trade Outlook
Grain trade is also expected to grow. In 2025-26, global trade is forecast to rise 2% year-on-year, reaching 430 million tonnes, driven mainly by increased wheat shipments. The trade forecast for 2024-25 was also revised upward by 5 million tonnes, totaling 423 million tonnes, although still down 36 million tonnes from 2023-24 levels.

Soybean Outlook
Encouraged by expectations of larger harvests in South America, global soybean production in 2025-26 is projected to rise 1% year-on-year, totaling 428 million tonnes. With consumption expected to grow by 18 million tonnes, combined global soybean carryovers may dip slightly. Trade in soybeans is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with a projected record of 183 million tonnes, reflecting a modest year-on-year gain.

Rice Production Hits Record High
Global rice production is forecast to reach a record 544 million tonnes in 2025-26, thanks to gains from the five major rice-producing countries. As a result of this expanded availability, rice consumption is expected to rise by 1%, while total global inventories are projected to accumulate.

India’s rice stocks alone are forecast to approach 50 million tonnes, contributing significantly to the overall rise in inventories. Global rice trade is projected to hit a record 60 million tonnes in 2026, supported by growing demand from Africa.