U.S. Farm Sector Faces Mounting Trade Deficit and Data Blackout Amid Renewed Strains with China

The United States agricultural sector is facing one of its most turbulent phases in recent history, as new research shows a deepening trade deficit while a government shutdown has paralyzed the release of critical market data. Together, the two developments have left farmers and global commodity traders struggling with uncertainty, supply disruptions, and growing competitive pressures.

A recent University of Illinois study has revealed that the U.S., once a dominant agricultural exporter, has slipped into a widening trade deficit expected to hit $49 billion by the end of 2025. At the same time, a prolonged federal government shutdown has halted key agricultural reports, leaving markets without vital updates on production, exports, and prices at the height of the autumn harvest.

These twin setbacks—shrinking exports and missing data—underscore the challenges confronting American agriculture as trade conflicts, particularly with China, continue to disrupt long-standing supply chains and global market confidence.

Exports Stagnate, Deficit Widens

According to the study conducted by William Ridley of the University of Illinois and Stephen Devadoss of Texas Tech University, the U.S. remains a top producer of key commodities like corn, soybeans, and cotton, but export growth has stalled. Over the past few years, the U.S. has slipped from being a net exporter to a net importer of agricultural goods—a reversal not seen in decades.

The analysis attributes this decline to persistent trade conflicts, changing global demand, and stronger competition from countries such as Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine. While U.S. productivity remains stable, rivals have improved efficiency, logistics, and export infrastructure. Brazil, in particular, has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest soybean exporter, supplying much of what China once bought from American farmers.

The research notes that even after the 2020 “Phase One” trade deal temporarily revived U.S.-China farm trade, exports collapsed again. China has largely stopped buying American soybeans, corn, cotton, and sorghum, turning instead to South American suppliers. Current forecasts show continued declines in row crop exports, with limited prospects for recovery despite potential tariff adjustments.

Impact of the U.S.-China Trade Conflict

The U.S.-China trade dispute has cost American farmers billions. Between 2017 and 2018 alone, U.S. soybean export values to China fell by 73 percent (around $9 billion), while wheat and corn exports dropped by 67 percent and 61 percent, respectively. Overall, agricultural exports to China plunged by roughly $14 billion during that period.

The trade tensions have only deepened this year. China recently announced additional port fees on U.S.-linked vessels, mirroring U.S. charges on Chinese ships. The new fees, effective from October 14, will apply to ships owned, built, or operated by U.S. entities and could climb to over 1,120 yuan per net tonne by 2028, raising shipping costs and further straining agricultural trade flows.

Analysts say the measure signals Beijing’s continuing discontent with Washington’s trade stance and reinforces the likelihood that China will maintain its reduced purchases of U.S. farm goods. This policy, combined with tariffs and freight barriers, is expected to intensify the existing agricultural trade imbalance and weaken American competitiveness in global grain markets.

Farmers and Traders Hit by Data Blackout

Compounding the trade challenges, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has suspended publication of crucial reports—including weekly export sales, crop progress updates, and the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)—due to the ongoing government shutdown. The USDA’s absence has effectively left the industry without the primary data used to price, hedge, and manage commodities such as corn, soybeans, and livestock.

The shutdown has disrupted normal trading patterns at a critical juncture in the crop cycle. With no verified figures on harvest progress, yields, or export volumes, traders are relying on satellite imagery, private estimates, and informal conversations with farmers to gauge market direction. Industry participants describe the current state of play as “flying blind”, warning of growing market opacity and uneven access to information.

Major agribusinesses like Cargill, Bunge, and Archer-Daniels-Midland, which maintain their own data networks, may gain an advantage over smaller traders who depend on USDA’s public information. As a result, trading volumes in grain futures have fallen as investors hesitate to take positions without the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly data on speculative market activity.

Without USDA’s authoritative numbers, analysts fear price distortions and increased volatility once regular data releases resume. The absence of the WASDE report, in particular, deprives global markets of updates on U.S. production and world demand trends that influence prices from Chicago to Shanghai.

Rising Risks and Global Ripples

The dual crises—a widening trade deficit and a federal data blackout—have exposed vulnerabilities in the U.S. agricultural system. Farmers are facing lower prices, weaker export demand, and growing uncertainty about future policy and market access. For many, these challenges come on top of weather-related losses and higher input costs driven by inflation and supply chain disruptions.

Internationally, traders in Asia, South America, and Europe have alternative data sources, softening the impact abroad. However, for the U.S., the loss of timely and transparent data undercuts its role as a global benchmark for agricultural intelligence.

The longer the shutdown persists, the more difficult it will be to restore confidence in market information and trading systems. Analysts warn that when data publication resumes, discrepancies between private and official estimates could jolt markets, triggering sudden price swings.

Meanwhile, the trade deficit threatens to persist beyond 2025 as structural shifts in production and trade patterns solidify. With Brazil and other competitors expanding export capacity, regaining lost ground in markets like China may prove increasingly difficult.

Outlook

As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea, the agricultural sector will be watching closely for any sign of reconciliation. But given the combined weight of tariffs, freight fees, and lost trust, few expect a quick revival in trade relations.

For now, American farmers and traders find themselves in a precarious position—caught between missing data at home and diminishing demand abroad. The confluence of policy paralysis and market realignment has left the U.S. farm economy navigating an uncertain path, with its once-commanding global edge increasingly under threat.