Sugar production estimated at 350 lt this year; exports may cross 90 lt

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has revised its sugar production estimate for the 2021-22 sugar season (SS). The all-India sugar production in 2021-22 SS is expected at 350 lakh tonnes (lt), after considering the diversion of 34 lt of sugar equivalent into ethanol. This information was shared in an ISMA press release.

The higher sugar production is due to significantly higher yields per hectare as also higher sugar recovery. The area under sugarcane has not seen any significant increase in the last few years. The higher yields and recoveries are due to better seed varieties and timely application of fertilizers and water, including good rainfall last year.

ISMA has revised its sugar production estimate for 2021-22 SS (after diversion into ethanol) for Maharashtra as 134 lt, against 126 lt estimated a month back. Similarly, Karnataka is now expected to produce 62 lt as against 55 lt estimated earlier. However, minor changes are expected in other Statesf, including Uttar Pradesh (UP), and they are expected to produce 154 lt of sugar as against 152 lt estimated earlier.

The sugar production for the country up to 31 March 2022 was around 310 lt. Maharashtra and Karnataka have already produced around 119 and 58 lt respectively to this date. As of March-end, 167 mills were still operating in Maharashtra and 21 in Karnataka.

In its meeting held on April 8, the Committee of ISMA discussed the sugar recovery, cane yield, remaining harvestable area/sugarcane and expected dates of closure of factories in different States. It agreed that the sugarcane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka was higher than what was expected earlier.

On the export front, it is reported that around 74 lt of export contracts have already been entered into so far. Out of that, over 57 lt is reported to have been physically exported till the end of March 2022. Another 7-8 lt is in the pipeline to be exported in April 2022. Further, news from international trade houses indicate that the global market is expecting over 85 lt of sugar exports from India. This was also discussed in the meeting of ISMA and members agreed that sugar exports will be higher than previously expected, and India will export over 90 lt of sugar in the current season.

The sugar season runs from October to September. Considering an opening stock of about 82 lt as of 1 October 2021, domestic consumption of 272 lt, sugar exports of over 90 lt and the estimated sugar production of 350 lt, the closing stock as of 30 September 2022 is expected to be at around 68 lt.