NFCSF Revised India's Sugar Production Estimate to 259 Lakh Tonnes, Flagged ‘Ambiguity’ in Production Numbers

Sugar production in India has witnessed a significant decline in the 2024-25 sugar season due to lower cane crushing compared to the previous year. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Limited (NFCSF) has revised its sugar production estimates downward, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industry.

NFCSF estimates total sugar production in India to reach 259 lakh tonnes in the 2024-25 season, a decline of 18.81% from 319 lakh tonnes in the previous season. Earlier, NFCSF had projected sugar production for the current season to reach 265 lakh tonnes.

As of March 15, India's sugar production has declined by 16.11 percent to 237.15 lakh tonnes in the ongoing 2024-25 season, creating challenges for government policies that were formulated based on higher initial projections. Out of 533 operational sugar mills, 329 have concluded crushing, compared to just 176 mills by this time last year. Sugar recovery has also fallen to 9.32 percent from 9.95 percent last year.

‘Ambiguity’ in Estimates

NFCSF has raised concerns over the "ambiguity" in sugar production figures, highlighting that “the 2024-25 sugar season, right from the beginning, was marked by constantly changing estimates of sugarcane availability and expected sugar production.”

“The ambiguity in sugar production numbers still persists even today. One section of the industry submitted an estimate of 333 lakh tonnes of sugar production to the central government. Based on that, the central government started formulating its policies,” NFCSF said in a statement.

The central government had permitted exports of 10 lakh tonnes of sugar in January 2025 based on the initial production estimate, but since then, the sugar production estimate has continued to be revised downward.

State-Wise Production Trends

According to NFCSF data, sugar production in Maharashtra fell to 78.60 lakh tonnes as of March 15 of the current season, down from 100.45 lakh tonnes a year ago.
Output in Uttar Pradesh has decreased to 80.95 lakh tonnes from 88.55 lakh tonnes, while Karnataka’s sugar production declined to 39.10 lakh tonnes from 49.50 lakh tonnes in the same period last year.

Heavy infestations of Red Rot and Top Shoot Borer on the sugarcane variety Co-0238— which covers the majority of the sugarcane area in Uttar Pradesh—along with premature massive flowering of standing sugarcane in Maharashtra and Karnataka, have resulted in stunted growth and adverse effects on sugar yield. 

Industry Concerns

Harshvardhan Patil, President of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), said that at this rate, the crushing season across the country—except for Uttar Pradesh—will conclude by the end of March, while mills in Uttar Pradesh will finish crushing by mid-April.

"Especially in a major state like Maharashtra, which has 200 operational sugar factories, the crushing season this year has lasted only 83 days. Any factory can survive only if it runs for at least 140 to 150 days," said Harshvardhan Patil.

“The entire sugar industry in Maharashtra has found itself in huge financial trouble this year. It is very difficult to correlate expenses for 365 days and load them onto an 83-day season," he added.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, despite the current challenges, NFCSF Managing Director Prakash Naiknaware expressed optimism for the 2025-26 season, citing improved sugarcane availability due to favourable weather conditions and increased plantings.

"If weather conditions remain favourable, sugar production should improve in 2025-26 and could also sustain growth into 2026-27," Naiknaware added.